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Health experts in Wales are “strongly advising” people in Wales to postpone the meeting for Christmas as coronavirus cases continue to rise.
The Council of the Welsh Government Technical Advisory Group (TAG) says it would be best for people to postpone the celebration of Christmas together and postpone the celebration to a later date.
A report from the group says: “If people can avoid seeing others during the Christmas period, perhaps by postponing the celebrations until next year or by meeting remotely, then it is strongly recommended.”
The group also says that families with children should consider “pre-isolation” at home for 10 days before seeing elderly relatives. The period of self-isolation in Wales has now been reduced to ten days.
The report says: “Winter celebrations such as Christmas are likely to lead to greater intergenerational mixing and opportunities for the virus to spread to new networks of contacts, from the social mix before Christmas to the extended family mix at Christmas.
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“This is very likely to provide greater opportunities for disease transmission. Increased infections in older adults are likely to lead to more deaths and hospitalizations after Christmas.
“The best way to protect older family members is not to expose them to possible infection, no matter how well intentioned the reason for contact may be. Evidence suggests that most transmission occurs due to close and prolonged interaction. with acquaintances in a familiar environment “.
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The latest statistics from the Office for National Statistics show that the death rate in Wales for the week ending 27 November is a third higher than at the border in England, and advisers to the Government of Wales say the figure is above worst case scenario.
Cases are increasing in most local health authorities and the infection rate in Wales now stands at 326.8 per 100,000 people based on the seven days to 5 December. This is an increase of 308.3 from the previous day. You can see the infection rates in your area here.
Wales, England, Scotland and Northern Ireland agreed to a UK-wide approach to Christmas, and three households were allowed to mingle between 23 and 27 December. But the report warns that it is “very likely” that the gathering of different generations will help spread Covid 19.
It says: “Until widespread vaccination is carried out, it will be important to equip people with some sensible advice on how to visit family members in the safest way possible (e.g. reduced stay, good hygiene of hands and ventilation) “.
The report also notes that SAGE Environmental Modeling Group, who governments also seek advice from, highlights that the risk of transmission is a combination of environmental and behavioral factors: the most risky contacts are those that are close, prolonged, indoors, face to face. , in poorly ventilated and / or crowded spaces, or involve “noisy” activities
They also highlight the effects of alcohol on judgment, movement, memory, and inhibitions that are likely to lead to difficulties with social distancing and following up on subsequent contacts.
For families with young children, isolating themselves for 10 days before Christmas would mean taking children out of school early. The TAG report does not specifically recommend that this be done, but it does say that identified cases and contacts in students and school teachers are increasing.
Welsh ministers and council leaders have pledged to keep schools open until the end of the term on December 18, although some councils in Wales have decided to close them early.
But he concludes: “Normally, closing schools should be the last intervention to consider, due to the balance of risks of short-term and long-term harm to children in terms of physical and mental health and well-being and learning.
“For decisions about whether school closings should take place beyond the Christmas period, it will be important to consider more evidence as it becomes available, given the broader damage caused by school closings.”
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During the Prime Minister’s Questions on Tuesday, Mark Drakeford said that while a “restriction period for 10 days before the Christmas period would be an advantage for all families,” it was better for schools to remain open until the last day of the term. , when it is possible.
“The real problem is that we are not confident, from behavioral evidence, that if children are not in school, they are simply being kept at home and kept away from contacts that would otherwise create greater risk. “, said. .
“The fear is that children who are not in school are in even more risky environments.”
The white paper concludes: “The policy model suggests that the introduction of Level 3 restrictions (eg, Hospitality and entertainment closure, mix reduction) prior to the relaxation of restrictions before Christmas will reduce the amount of hospital and ICU beds required for COVID-19 patients, and deaths. “
Earlier, Health Minister Vaughan Gething warned that the Welsh government had to make “tough decisions” about Covid rules after Christmas.
He said Wales was the only part of the UK where numbers were not falling at the end of November and ministers are considering whether further restrictions will be necessary after the holiday period.
Dr. Gillian Richardson, co-chair of the Covid-19 Vaccine Program Board, also warned that a third wave is a “major concern.”
“A third wave is definitely our concern and our fear,” he told BBC Radio Wales.
“Unfortunately, in some areas of Wales, it looks like this. The mix of people who are not in your bubble in the run-up to Christmas means infections will skyrocket.”
SAGE agrees that it is better to enter the Christmas period with a low level of community transmission rather than high, but the concern is the increase in cases in Wales.
Dr Simon Williams, a leading researcher in public perceptions on the coronavirus at Swansea University, says the 17-day firewall “was not as successful as it should have been.”
He told BBC Radio Wales: “Maybe, (the firewall) was not as long as it should have been. At the beginning of the firewall we were promised that it would help us regain control over the virus. Clearly, at this point over time, not we are in control.
“Entering the Christmas mix period is very worrying. In hindsight, a longer lockdown would have helped.
“A lot of people are confused about how they should feel about Christmas. A lot of people were excited about the vaccine and excited to meet the family, but now there is a mixed message that maybe we should get too excited and mix. People are divided how they feel.
“Canceling Christmas is a really difficult question. The point about prior isolation is crucial, which begins this Sunday. People should try to isolate themselves as much as possible from December 13.”
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