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I was approved of the government’s “reasonable worst-case planning assumptions to support civil contingency planning for the end of the transition period.”
The 34-page document (submitted to be my Twitter @ mi6rogue) describes itself as a “defiant manifestation of the risk in question,” but “not the absolute worst-case scenario.”
A government source confirmed that the “sensitive official” document, which was written in September, still supports contingency planning.
“It is not a prognosis”, but a “reasonable” assessment of what could happen to us if talks on a free trade agreement collapse in the coming days with the European Union and negotiations cannot be rescued.
Furthermore, as the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Michael Gove, has recognized, very few companies are prepared for the increased bureaucratic burden of trade with the EU, even if there is a free trade agreement, so some of the “worst” could materialize. reasonable cases “under any circumstances.
So what are those potential crashes? Well, these are the main headlines, in no particular order.
1) Drug and medical product flow rates “could initially be reduced to 60-80% within three months, which, if not mitigated, would affect the supply of drugs and medical products across the UK”.
2) “Protests and counter-protests will take place across the UK and can absorb significant amounts of police resources. There may also be an increase in public disorder and community tensions.”
3) “EU and UK fishermen could face loss of access to historic fishing grounds, and there could be a significant increase in illegal fishing activities.”
4) “Competitive demands on the UK government and maritime agencies of the decentralized administration and their assets could put [maritime security] execution and response capabilities are at risk. “
5) Will have “reduced [food] the availability of supply, especially of certain fresh products “and” the supply of some critical units for the food supply chain … could be reduced “.
6) “Low-income groups will be disproportionately affected by any increase in food and fuel prices.”
7) “Border delays, tariffs and new regulatory barriers / costs can lead to disruption of supply of critical chemicals used in the UK … leading to disruption of essential services (such as food, energy , water and drugs). Economic factors could result in some chemical suppliers reducing their operations or closing. “
8) “Delays at the border could affect local fuel disruption. There will be no broader oil shortage nationwide.”
9) There is a risk of a reduction in the supply of medicines for veterinary use from the UK which would ‘reduce our ability to prevent and control disease outbreaks, with possible detrimental impacts on animal health and welfare, the environment , greater food safety / availability and control of zoonotic diseases that can directly affect human health “.
10) “It is possible that between 40 and 70% of the trucks traveling to the EU are not ready for the new border controls. This could reduce the flow through the short channel crossing to 60-80% of the levels normal with maximum queues of 7,000 trucks in Kent and delays of two days. The worst disturbance would disappear in three months. ”
11) The transition from “internal security cooperation with the EU” to “non-EU mechanisms” may not be smooth and smooth and may “lead to a mutual reduction in the ability to deal with crime and terrorism “.
12) Approximately one in 20 local authorities is at risk of financial collapse as a result of increased demand for services caused by a disruptive exit from the EU.
There are many other risks identified in the document. They show the magnitude of the stakes as talks about that elusive free trade agreement reach a climax in the next 24 hours.
I asked the government for a comment. Here’s what a spokesperson said: “As a responsible government, we continue to make extensive preparations for a wide range of scenarios, including reasonable worst-case scenarios.”
“This is not a forecast or prediction of what will happen, but rather a stretch scenario.
“It reflects a responsible government that ensures that we are prepared for all eventualities.
“Whatever the outcome of the negotiations, we will soon be out of the single market and the customs union.
“It is vital that businesses and citizens prepare now for the opportunities and changes at the end of the transition period, and intensive planning is underway to help them prepare.
“This includes launching a comprehensive communication campaign to make sure everyone knows what to do to prepare.”
