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Kent’s coronavirus infection rate has reached its highest level despite a month-long nationwide shutdown, with deaths increasing tenfold in November.
The latest figures show there were more cases in the county in the week through Sunday than in any other since the pandemic struck.
At the same time, pressure on local NHS services has intensified, with close to 700 Covid-19 patients in Kent hospitals at the start of the week.
The number of people dying from the virus has also skyrocketed, with the death toll in November nearly 10 times higher than in October.
Taken together, the numbers suggest there is little hope that the county will drop to Level 2 on Dec. 16.
When the government announced that Kent would be at Level 3, its infection rate was 281 weekly cases per 100,000 people.
By November 29, the date for which the most complete data is available, it had risen to 298, the highest on record for both.
By comparison, England’s rate on the same day was 154, almost 25% less on the week.
Swale’s infection rate remains the highest in the county, and England, at 578, but a sharp increase has started to slow.
In neighboring Medway, however, the rate has soared 27% in a week to 560, suggesting that it will soon rank first nationally.
Worrisome increases have also been recorded in Ashford (42%), Maidstone (40%) and Folkestone and Hythe (23%), areas that until recently had escaped the highest rates seen in other parts of the county.
It only leaves two areas of Kent, Sevenoaks and Tunbridge Wells, reporting a drop in cases, potentially reducing the chance that a more localized tier system will be adopted before Christmas.
But infection rates alone will not decide whether restrictions can be relaxed, with pressure on local NHS services being another key factor.
However, the outlook at Kent and Medway hospitals gives little reason for optimism.
As of Monday, there were 658 patients in the hospital with Covid-19 countywide, up 40% from the previous week, with 44 of them on a ventilator.
Not all patients are being treated for the virus, but all would have tested positive for Covid-19.
The same can be said for the staggering number of coronavirus deaths recorded in Kent and Medway last month.
An increase in coronavirus cases that began in September, when three deaths were recorded throughout the month, has been followed by an increase in the number of people dying.
In October, 39 lost their lives within 28 days of testing positive for the virus, and this number rose to 372 in November.
The areas that have registered the highest rates have been the most affected.
Of the 176 people from Swale who have died from Covid-19 since the pandemic occurred, 74 lost their lives in November.
In the same month, 47 people from Thanet died, representing 27% of the total deaths.
At the other end of the scale, only 3% of Ashford’s Covid-19 deaths were recorded in November, and five people died.
A monumental increase in testing since July explains why rates in the second wave are so much higher than the first: More people are being tested, so more cases are being found.
But an estimated 10% increase in testing between October and November doesn’t explain why the Kent and Medway cases have increased 11-fold.
Figures show that there were 672 positive tests in the first week of October and 7,427 in the last week of November.
The massive testing is expected to eventually help reduce the infection rate, and the military yesterday helped establish a center on the Medway campus of the University of Kent.
A pilot plan will test all key community workers, whether they show symptoms or not, and deliver the results in about 30 minutes.
With more people being tested, the number of cases is likely to increase initially, but identifying asymptomatic carriers who would later be isolated is considered how to contain outbreaks.
The percentage of tests that are positive is expected to decrease from 15% to 5% at Medway.
On massive asymptomatic testing, KCC public health director Andrew Scott-Clark said: “We are likely to see an increase in cases, but it also allows us to track outbreaks and ask people to self-isolate, so although cases may initially increase, anticipate a decrease in future additional transmission rates and thus in the number of cases.
“We will first target the people who have the highest exposure to the virus in the districts with the highest Covid-19 prevalence, so that we can start lowering rates quickly in those areas and therefore help all of Kent get moving. out of Level 3 as quickly as possible. “
The government is scheduled to review its tier system before December 16, when the changes are expected to take effect.
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