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The coronavirus vaccine will have only a marginal impact on hospital admissions over the next three months and the holiday season is likely to put additional pressure on health services, UK medical directors warned.
In a letter sent to health workers on Friday, CMOs for England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland said the effects of the vaccination would likely be felt in the spring, but workers should prepare for an “especially harsh” winter.
They wrote: “Although the very welcome news about vaccines means that we can look towards 2021 with greater optimism, the deployment of the vaccine will have only a marginal impact on reducing the number of people entering the health service with Covid during the next three months… The social mix that happens around Christmas may well put additional pressure on hospitals and general practice in the New Year and we must be prepared for that. “
The Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) approved the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine on Wednesday, meaning the UK is the first country in the world to have an approved vaccine.
The vaccines are expected to be administered in England for the first time on Tuesday after they have been distributed to hospitals. Northern Ireland has also said it is on track to start immunizations next week.
Hospitals will begin by immunizing nursing home staff and inpatients and outpatients over the age of 80. Residents of nursing homes, who are in the highest priority category, pose a more difficult logistical challenge. At one point it was proposed to NHS staff to be the first to receive the vaccine, but the letter says: “All health workers would agree that the primary goal of the initial vaccination program should be to protect the most vulnerable and with higher risk of mortality. “
It also notes that while the vaccine may prevent symptoms of the disease, firm data on its effects on virus transmission are lacking. “It is going to be critical that people continue to maintain current PPE (personal protective equipment) and other measures to reduce transmission even after vaccination as we accumulate that data,” they say.
Expressing admiration for the continued efforts of healthcare workers, the authors also encourage them to participate in the trials, echoing Friday’s warning from Mike Ryan, the World Health Organization’s leading emergency expert, that “vaccines they do not equal zero Covid ”.
“We do not expect Covid to disappear even once full vaccination has been done, although it will be substantially less important as a cause of mortality and morbidity. Therefore, it is absolutely essential that we use the next few months to learn as much as we can as we expect Covid to be less common in the future, ”they said.
“This will give us the best chance of having a strong evidence base to manage it for years to come. Therefore, we strongly encourage colleagues to continue recruiting or participating in drug trials like Recovery, vaccine trials, and observational studies like Siren. We will all be very grateful for the results this will lead to in the years to come. “
Medical chiefs said the closures and other restrictions had helped reduce the peak and that in most areas of the UK the number of hospitals is likely to decline in the coming weeks. But they warned that this would not happen everywhere and that easing restrictions over Christmas could change the picture.
