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The government has been accused of producing a “renewed document” in an attempt to quell a conservative rebellion over its strengthened levels of coronavirus.
Ministers have released an impact assessment of the new tiered system ahead of the Commons vote on Tuesday.
Boris Johnson is fighting to avoid a damaging conservative revolt over the measures, and many of his MPs are unhappy with the new system.
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Johnson: Vaccines ‘could’ be ready before Christmas
The government’s assessment says that while the new restrictions will have a “significant” impact on the economy, allowing COVID-19 to run rampant would be “much worse” for public health.
The document states that if strict measures are not upheld, the NHS will be overwhelmed and cause “intolerable” loss of life.
But in a withering response, a senior Conservative MP has claimed that the impact assessment contains little new information.
“With just over 24 hours until MPs vote on the new tiered system, this renewed document offers very little more in economic terms than what the OBR released last week,” said Treasury Select Committee Chairman Mel Stride .
“It is frustrating that there is little here that establishes how the different tiers could impact specific sectors and regions across the country.
“Those looking for additional economic analysis of the new tiered system will have a hard time finding it in this document.”
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‘We have this virus under control’
Mark Harper, chairman of the COVID Recovery Group of Conservative MPs who are skeptical of new restrictions, said the analysis “appears to be collapsing under the glare of scrutiny” and “the wheels are coming off the government’s arguments.”
Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Supporting Conservatives Committee, has said he will almost certainly vote against the government.
Speaking at an online event hosted by the Institute for Economic Affairs, he said: “My concerns about the impact on civil liberties and fundamental human rights are there regardless.
“The fact is that my own constituency [Altrincham and Sale West] it has been placed in the wrong level without good justification; Unless that changes, it is inevitable that I will vote against. “
Johnson has acknowledged that “many people think he is at the wrong level,” but insists that the measures are necessary to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
It would be a mistake to “remove your foot from the neck of the beast” now, the prime minister said.
The health secretary has also called on conservative parliamentarians to support the tiered system, claiming that it is the “best way” to avoid a third national blockade.
“I urge all MPs throughout the House to vote for the tiered system,” he told a news conference in Downing Street.
Analysis: Level Assessment May Not Satisfy Skeptical Parliamentarians
By Tom Rayner, Political Correspondent
Conservative opponents of the new regional level restrictions have been very specific about what they wanted to see in the government’s impact assessment of the new level system.
Mark Harper, former head whip and chair of the COVID Recovery Group, said MPs should be aware of the social and economic impact of “every proposed restriction” within each tier before casting their votes in the Commons on Tuesday.
But the document published by the government does not do that.
Instead, it says “it is not possible to predict with confidence the precise economic impact of a specific change in a specific constraint.”
It is recognized that the most recent forecast from the Office of Budgetary Responsibility was based on the more flexible tier system established prior to the lockdown across England and therefore the new stricter version of the regional tier system could suffer further economic losses in the short term “stops to the extent that the average restrictions in the UK are tighter”.
But it doesn’t include an economic impact assessment of just being able to go to a bar with your own home on Level 2, for example.
The broad justification for the tier system set out in the document is the same as the ministers made in recent days: that while there will be economic and social costs, not acting and risking the NHS being overwhelmed would be “intolerable for our society” .
But for conservative supporters considering voting against the government, repeating this argument may not be enough to change your mind.
They know the argument, but want to see strong evidence to justify it, and it is not clear that this document is perceived to have provided it.
