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menvy is an unworthy emotion and yet I feel it. It first came about on Monday, when Joe Biden announced his first level of cabinet appointments, appointing a team of calm, competent and deeply experienced lieutenants who will stand in stark contrast to the British cabinet of all the talentless. The green-eyed demon struck again Thursday as he watched Biden emit a series of Thanksgiving messages with a warmth and humanity alien to the man he will triumph. It is becoming clearer every day that by electing Biden and rejecting Donald Trump, Americans are moving to undo the big mistake they made in 2016. I envy that, because we’re still stuck with ours.
Of course, Trumpism will live on in some form, but in January 2021, Americans will formally conclude the chapter that opened with Trump’s victory four years ago. In the same month, we will begin our Brexit story in earnest, leaving the European Union not just in name but in practice. As America’s encounter with the reality of populist nationalism of 2016 ends, ours will begin.
Even with only a few weeks to go, it is still unclear whether we will end the EU transition period on January 1 with a deal or without – you can find signs pointing to both outcomes. But let’s say a deal is made and ratified in these remaining 30 days. That will be greeted with relief, as a no-deal breakup is still the stuff of nightmares. And yet that relief should not hide the fact that even an agreed exit will devastate our economy more deeply than the pandemic, which itself has shaken us to the core.
A study by Thomas Sampson of the London School of Economics finds that while the coronavirus has caused more pain in the short term, by 2035 it is the scars of Brexit that we will bear. His estimate is that Covid-19 reduces the future GDP of the United Kingdom by 2.1%, in terms of present value, but Brexit reduces it by almost double: 3.7%. And that’s if we get a deal (the figure goes up to 5.7% without one). Remember, this is not a disaster caused by nature or disease – we are doing it to ourselves.
I can hear the inevitable response from both those who drop out and those who are left exhausted: “Okay, okay, but the debate is over. The British voted in favor of Brexit, again, giving Boris Johnson an 80-seat majority in 2019. It is done. ”But there are two important responses.
The first is that Johnson’s victory was based on the promise of a “ready-for-the-oven” deal that simply needed the approval of the voters. And yet here we are, almost a year later, with no deal. The Brexit that won ratification last December was sold on a false prospectus, falsely claiming a degree of resolution that did not exist. Like Naomi Smith from the Brexit skeptical group Best for Britain says so: what happens when voters find that Johnson’s oven-ready deal is “raw and frozen in the middle”? That result is very likely. Even the most optimistic about a breakthrough suspect that any final deal with Brussels will be extremely thin, meeting only the most basic needs: “thinner than a 1990s supermodel”, in the words of an EU observer.
The second answer points to the obvious difference between December 2020 and December 2019: We are in the middle of a cruel and deadly pandemic. Wherever you were on Brexit before, you can surely see that now, in the depths of a winter wave of the virus, with most of the country in various degrees of lockdown and with companies sick and overwhelmed, is the worst time to force a review. radical of supply chains and trade agreements with our closest neighbors.
If in doubt, listen to the British Pharmaceutical Industry Association, which warns that supplies of crucial drugs, including any new coronavirus vaccines, could be disrupted by Brexit, either no-deal or no-deal. “We don’t need this added bureaucracy, added complexity, added costs, and added delays that get in the way of our supply chain at a time when we’re trying to deal with Covid,” the group says.
The country’s food supply is also “in jeopardy,” according to Bloomberg, which reports that manufacturers and distributors already affected by Christmas and Covid “warn that the food supply chain is maxed out and cannot cope. to more shocks “. Unilever, producer of countless home brands, is pleading with the government to “keep ports and highways open,” lest supermarket shelves empty. And yet it is at this very moment that the government is launching a new customs system for cross-border carriers: the test will launch on December 23, hours before Christmas and just eight days before the system becomes mandatory.
It is kind of crazy to be doing all this now, and yet the government will not be swayed. And the opposition? If there is a last minute deal, Labor will have a decision to make. You believe you cannot vote against an agreement, because that would be not approving any agreement. But the shadow cabinet is divided between abstention and voting with the government. I have been told that Shadow Chancellor Anneliese Dodds, Emily Thornberry and others want to abstain, while Lisa Nandy and Keir Starmer are inclined to back any deal.
Abstention has obvious drawbacks. It resembles the very Brexit that cost Labor so much a year ago. “Refrain on the most important topic of the day? It is very difficult to explain that at the door, ”says a shadow minister. And yet to vote with Boris Johnson is to dip Labor’s fingers in the blood of Brexit, to share the blame when things go wrong. Starmer will argue that when he voted in favor, he was endorsing the principle of ensuring a agreement, without endorsing this particular agreement. That can also have a hard time breaking through. And let’s not forget: the most immediate elections are in Scotland, where a Boris-backed Brexit vote will not exactly increase Labor’s chances.
It will be a difficult decision, but when Starmer makes it, he may remember two things. First, Brexit was always a terrible idea, but now it is insane and does not have to bear its stain. Second, he is the leader of the opposition, and if anything cries out for the opposition, it is this.
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