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Relaxing coronavirus restrictions over Christmas will increase infections by “potentially a large number,” warned government scientific advisers.
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) said the prevalence of COVID-19 “could easily double” during the festive period with a “substantial mix” of people.
The warning comes in a document called “holiday period notes,” which was written more than a week ago but first published on Friday.
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“Any relaxation during (the) holiday period will result in higher transmission and higher prevalence, potentially in large numbers,” the document says.
“You can draw a parallel, albeit on a different scale, between the return of students in the fall and people from different households who mix intensely at Christmas.”
SAGE says that “the substantial mixing of people for a short period of time, especially those who do not make contact regularly for a month, represents a significant risk of widespread transmission.”
“The prevalence could easily double over a few days of the holiday season,” he adds.
Experts say there could be further increases as newly infected people “return to their ‘routine’ networks.”
About one in 85 people had coronavirus in England in the week to November 21, the latest figures suggest.
Coronavirus rules will be relaxed during the festive season across the UK and people will be able to celebrate in ‘Christmas bubbles’ from three households with their families.
Between December 23 and 27, people will be able to reunite with two other households to form a Christmas bubble, but only in a private home, a place of worship, or public outdoor spaces.
In its document, SAGE says that “household bubbles may be better than limiting contacts to a specific number”, but adds that “fidelity to bubbles is paramount.”
The scientists advise that “families should be encouraged to gather in places where fewer people have to share bedrooms and there are more bathrooms.”
They also say that the “bathroom cleaning division of labor” is “potentially important”, and the most vulnerable should not be left with a house to clean.
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In a previous Sky News interview, Cabinet Minister Robert Jenrick acknowledged that a relaxation of restrictions over Christmas is likely to “drive a higher infection rate.”
A three-tiered system of restrictions will be introduced after England’s second national lockdown ends on Wednesday.
Some 99% of the population of England it will fall into the two hardest tiers, but Jenrick said parts of England could have their restrictions eased before Christmas.
On Friday it was announced that the UK coronavirus breeding number, or R number, has fallen between 0.9 and 1as the UK recorded another 16,022 coronavirus cases and 521 related deaths.
