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PPutting up the supporting act doesn’t come naturally to Boris Johnson. But on reflection, you might come to thank Rishi Sunak for taking center stage with his expense review statement, as he allowed most people to overlook his third-rate performance on the prime minister’s questions. Accusing Keir Starmer of focusing on trivia when asked about multiple breaches of the ministerial code will not be one of the highlights of Johnson’s career.
Nor is it that the chancellor has had it easy. Sunak tried to give his usual polite and calm performance of “don’t worry, your cute little heads, I’ve got everything under control”, but you could feel the tension in his voice. On the other hand, telling the country that it is basically financially bankrupt for the foreseeable future is not a job that anyone would much like. GDP had suffered its biggest drop in 300 years. The UK was committed to the highest level of indebtedness during peacetime. Unemployment would increase to 2.6 million people. And even five years from now, the economy would be 5% lower. The sums involved were dazzling, the kind of numbers that no one could properly understand.
Of course, there were extenuating circumstances. No one had predicted the coronavirus pandemic, although Sunak was proud to say that the UK’s response had been worse than most. We had suffered the second largest economic decline, behind Spain, in Europe, but we had made up for it by leading the way in the number of people who had died. But what was clear was that, while there were hopeful signs that the worst of the health emergency could have passed next year if vaccines went into operation, the economic emergency was just beginning.
Sunak tried his best to talk about his accomplishments and spending commitments, but it was difficult to maintain the pretense when departmental budgets were cut. Nor did a pay freeze for firefighters, teachers, and other public sector employees quite fit in with key workers’ promises from earlier in the year. Presumably, we were supposed to have realized at the time that we were only clapping for some of our caregivers. There was talk of a “once in a generation” opportunity to build new homes, but no one had much hope for that promise, as “once in a generation” opportunities seem to come and go in weeks in Westminster these days.
Other money came and went at full speed. There would be no continuation of the £ 20 increase in universal credit and disabled people should rejoice at their 37 pence a week raise in pay. And as of today, the government manifesto promise to keep foreign aid at 0.7% of gross national income was dead in the water. Those foreigners would have to start taking care of themselves. We did our bit by helping develop a coronavirus vaccine that they could use, so what more could you ask for? But just to show that the government did not break all its promises, Sunak concluded with a £ 4bn equalization fund for which MPs could bid. As long as those MPs had conservative red wall seats.
The statement lasted just under 25 minutes; There’s something to be said to keep the bad news short and sweet, when some budget speeches can last a full hour, but it was just as remarkable for what it didn’t say as it was for what it said. . There was no mention of the Brexit bonus that Boris had promised would come to our rescue in our hour of need. Again, now was not the time to mention a no-deal scenario that would reduce GDP by a further 2%, or a third-rate deal that would do a little better.
Sunak also didn’t give any clues about how we were going to eventually pay off all the excess loans, but he probably didn’t know. This was effectively the seventh or eighth budget he had given since March and the numbers have gotten worse and worse. So why become hostage to fortune by mentioning tax increases when you still had no idea how much money you would eventually need? Rishi is the Chancellor of Monopoly who is writing checks that he has no idea if he will be able to cash.
Anneliese Dodds, the shadow Chancellor of Labor, was witheringly skeptical in his response. While he did not underestimate the unprecedented nature of the pandemic, he questioned many of the chancellor’s priorities on where to make cuts. Many inequalities would not only remain but would deepen. The chancellor may have called his bailout package one of the most generous on offer, but there were still big cracks that many people would fall through at a time when conservative friends and donors were coming out of the crisis quite well. She was also the first to mention the B word. But even when reminded, Sunak was careful to forget to describe her Brexit calculations. There is so much bad news that anyone can receive at once.
Nor was it just the opposition parties that criticized the chancellor for his choice of priorities. Many conservatives, including Peter Bottomley, Tobias Ellwood and Tom Tugendhat, who are usually mild-mannered and calm, were highly critical of the decision to break the manifesto commitment and cut the aid budget. Andrew Mitchell suggested that the cut would cause 100,000 additional unnecessary deaths among some of the world’s poorest people.
Sunak just shrugged. It could live with 100,000 dead. What will be will be. By now, his notorious cold-bloodedness was beginning to wear off and his responses became less conciliatory. He is only used to being praised by his party for his generosity and foresight, even as many of his budgets have had to be revised in hindsight, being anointed as Boris’ natural successor. This is the first time that his competence and judgment have come under scrutiny from his own side and he didn’t seem to like it very much. Although you may have to get used to it.
• Join John Crace and Guardian columnist Marina Hyde as they look back on a political year like no other. Thursday, December 10, 7 pm GMT, 8 pm CET, 2 pm EST. Book tickets here
