[ad_1]
The Welsh ‘firewall’ blockade has succeeded in reducing Covid infections, and there are indications that rates have also fallen in Northern Ireland and are stabilizing in Scotland and some parts of England.
Mark Drakeford, the Welsh prime minister, said he believed the 17-day firewall, which ended 10 days ago, had worked and there was a “way” until Christmas if people continued to abide by the current rules.
However, he went to great lengths to say that this was just a “platform” that could be “wasted” if people did not act responsibly.
Drakeford expressed concern that Welsh police have dealt with 1,000 Covid-related incidents since the firewall ended, and asked people to think twice before heading to stores on Black Friday next week. He said Covid would “flood back in” if people didn’t act responsibly.
He said the seven-day case incidence rate for Wales had dropped to around 160 cases per 100,000 people, compared to 280 when the firewall started. Local rates range from just over 20 cases per 100,000 in Anglesey to over 350 in Blaenau Gwent.
At Merthyr Tydfil, in the South Wales valleys, where a massive testing program begins this weekend, the rate has plummeted from 770 to 250.
While the news from Wales is encouraging, the effects of England’s lockdown are just emerging. The latest results from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) infection survey suggest that the rate of increase in general cases in the England community is slowing and the rate of new infections has stabilized.
About 38,900 new cases were recorded per day in the most recent week, compared to about 47,700 per day the previous week. The latest findings span Nov.8-14, beginning three days after the lockdown was implemented in England, meaning they are unlikely to reflect the full impact of the measures.
The data show large variations in infection rates. “Positivity rates have continued to increase in London, the East of England and the South East; however, now rates appear to be declining in the North West and East Midlands, ”said ONS, adding that prevalence remained higher in the North West and Yorkshire and the Humber. Much of the Northwest was under Level 3 restrictions before the blockade was introduced.
The ONS findings are based on tests performed in randomly selected households and therefore detect both asymptomatic and symptomatic infections.
A similar picture is seen in data from the team behind the Covid symptom study app, based on swabs from symptomatic users collected in the two weeks to November 15, suggesting that the R figure for England is now 1.0, which means that infection rates remain stable.
“Both the North West and North East and Yorkshire have R-values of 0.9, and the numbers continue to decline from their peak in late October,” the team reports. “However, in the southern regions of England, cases are not decreasing despite lockdown restrictions, with R values of 1 in [the] southeast, London and southwest “.
The data also suggests that eastern England and the Midlands have R values of 1.1 and 1.0 respectively, something that Professor Tim Spector, who led the study, indicated indicates the need to focus on better compliance regionally rather than national for a longer period of time.
However, there is good news: Both data sets suggest that the percentage of people who test positive for Covid is stabilizing or even decreasing among older adults, although the ONS suggests that the rates continue to increase in children in elementary school age.
The good news from the Welsh government is reflected in the ONS figures. The results reveal that the percentage of people who tested positive for coronavirus peaked in late October and has since declined, with data from November 8-14 suggesting that roughly one in 165 people in Wales had the virus, compared to one in 110 people in the week of October 25 to 31.
Meanwhile, the study suggests that infection rates in Northern Ireland peaked in mid-October and have since fallen, while in Scotland infection rates have stabilized in recent weeks.
The government is now putting the R number at 1.0 to 1.1 for the UK and for England, with considerable variation between regions, as the ONS report suggests.
