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A scientist has questioned whether discussions could be banned at Christmas in an attempt to stop the spread of the coronavirus.
And the Secretary of Health has appeared to rule out hugs.
Cambridge University professor Sir David Spiegelhalter said “there will be a lot of guidance on what to do” if the coronavirus lockdown rules are relaxed during Christmas.
It has been suggested that the government could relax the lockdown rules for five days during the holiday season.
The advice of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) is that each day of relaxation of the coronavirus rules at Christmas could need five days of tighter restrictions. Professor Spiegelhalter said that “it doesn’t sound implausible.”
He said good ventilation and distance will be recommended, adding: “I wonder if they will ban singing, or a rule against family lines at Christmas to prevent the spread of the disease.”
The statistician and chairman of the Winton Center for Risk Communication and Evidence at the University of Cambridge told BBC Radio’s 4 Today show that he thought mixing over Christmas could lead to “tens of thousands” more Covid cases, which would require additional repression.
“It is quite plausible that a few days of relaxation will lead to tens of thousands more cases and that means more deaths and measures needed to keep them under control,” said Sir David.
“However, there is a big difference because when (they tell us) that we have to save lives, we don’t know who we are saving from.
“If someone dies or is hospitalized after receiving Covid at Christmas, they will know who they are and I think the possible regret in anticipation of that could make people very careful.”
He also predicted that the number of people hospitalized with coronavirus, 16,000 people today, would surpass the peak of 17,000 reached in the spring this winter, adding: “This will be a real effort.”
Health Secretary Matt Hancock apparently ruled out hugging family and friends at Christmas as he said there were “promising signs” that the current lockdown in England is working.
The Health Secretary said the rules should still be in effect during the holiday period, and that people observe social distancing as families come together.
But he said the government’s plan was to allow people to come together after what had been a “terrible year.”
Speaking on Times Radio, Hancock said discussions with delegate nations are continuing with the goal of reaching an agreement on how people can celebrate the holiday period.
He said it was necessary to “respect the fact that we must not spread the virus further, but also respect the fact that Christmas is a special time when people get together, especially with their families.”
Mr. Hancock added: “It’s about striking the right balance and allowing people to have a Christmas that will certainly be different this year, but still trying to have that cherished Christmas with your family as much as possible.
“What we want to have is a set of rules that, if possible, are consistent across the four nations of the UK, not least because many people travel to see their family at Christmas, but they also respect the fact that you must follow social distancing to keep the virus under control. “
He said he had “no doubt” that people would continue to follow the rules to keep the numbers of coronavirus cases low.
“I have no doubt that people will continue to respect social distancing at all times because we know that it is very important for full control of the virus,” he said.
Speaking on BBC Breakfast, Hancock said this Christmas “will not be completely normal”, adding that “there will have to be rules, unfortunately, to keep the virus under control.”
But he told BBC Radio 4’s Today show that while 2020 had been “such a difficult year”, there were signs that the current lockdown in England is working.
“There are promising signs that we have seen a flattening of the number of cases since the shutdown began and that is good news, although there is clearly more to be done,” he said.
“I call it flattening rather than falling because one swallow doesn’t make a summer, but there are promising signs that the lockdown is working to control the number of cases.”
Dismissing the idea that families should decide their own rules for Christmas, Hancock said people could spread the virus without knowing it.
But he added: “Christmas is a special time of year and we have had such a difficult year in 2020; It has been such a terrible year and having some hope, some joy in Christmas, I know it would be welcomed by many. people.”
Earlier, the Prime Minister of Wales, Mark Drakeford, said he had held talks with Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove and other prime ministers of delegated administrations on Wednesday about a UK-wide approach to Christmas restrictions. , with another meeting scheduled for next week.
“We agreed on some general parameters on Wednesday and referred officials from the four administrations to work on the details now, so I am hopeful that it will be possible to achieve a four-nation approach by Christmas,” he told the Today program.
Drakeford said that an agreement on allowing travel through the UK during the Christmas season was “first on the list of things to agree on”, even if a broader agreement was not possible.
It comes as Chris Hopson, executive director of NHS Providers, said that “it is still too early to say” whether the current lockdown will have the “consistent effect” that is needed.
In a blog post calling for the NHS to be protected, he added: “There is a real risk that in our desire to celebrate Christmas, we will trade a few days of celebration for the misery of a full third wave a few weeks later.”
Meanwhile, Calum Semple, professor of children’s health and outbreak medicine at the University of Liverpool and a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), which advises the government, said there was reason for optimism that the national lockdown in England will have pushed Covid case numbers low before Christmas.
He told Today that there was “encouraging evidence coming from North West England” with “a plateau of cases in the community and a slight decrease in cases entering the hospital.”
“And this gives us great optimism that, with the lockdown at the top, we will see the overall numbers in the country go down, so there is a lot to be optimistic about, along with the arrival of a vaccine.”
However, he stressed that “some parts of the country are really in a very difficult situation at the moment and their cases continue to increase.”
On the other hand, Professor Neil Ferguson, from Imperial College London, warned that social restrictions may need to remain in much of England after December 2 to stop the immediate recovery of infection levels.
The epidemiologist, whose model led to the original lockdown in March, told The Guardian that infection rates appear to be “stabilizing” and may be slowly starting to decline.
He added: “A halving of the prevalence of infection over the four weeks would be a positive result.”
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