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Ministers are expected to announce a stricter set of regional coronavirus rules for England next week to allow families to see each other over Christmas, as scientists warned that all holiday respite days would require five days of restrictions.
More data on the impact of the UK-wide lockdown that ends on December 2 is needed before the government makes a final decision, but it is understood that documents describing possible changed levels within the traffic light system have been distributed to some departments.
Local authorities expect them to be stricter than the previous three-tier system, but allow all stores to remain open.
Pubs and restaurants will make a key decision, with the hospitality industries warning that even restrictions similar to the old level 2, which prohibited indoor mixing between homes, will have a disastrous effect. A member survey conducted by four pub and hospitality organizations and released on Wednesday showed that under Tier 2 restrictions, 76% of businesses said they would not be viable.
However, Boris Johnson faces a dispute over the possibility of exiting the confinement at stricter levels. His scientific advisers insist a stronger regime is needed, but some Conservative MPs warned that they would not accept restrictions being relaxed for just a few days during the holiday period, saying, “Freedom cannot be just for Christmas.”
Johnson has promised MPs to vote on the next set of rules, and although Labor support almost guarantees that they will pass through the Commons, it would be deeply uncomfortable for the prime minister if this were necessary.
At a Downing Street briefing on Wednesday, Dr Susan Hopkins of Public Health England (PHE) said that to keep the epidemic under control, any relaxation around Christmas should be balanced with strict restrictions on socializing before and after.
Hopkins said previous advice from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), the government’s think tank, noted that for each day the restrictions are eased, they should be tightened again for two more days.
But a later statement from PHE said Hopkins “got it wrong” and that the model in fact showed that it would take roughly five days of restrictions for each day of relaxation.
Hopkins said: “Hopefully the government will make a decision that will allow us to mix it up a bit, but we’ll wait and see what it is. And then I think that once the Christmas period is over, if some socializing has been released, we will all have to be very responsible and reduce contacts again. “
Data released in the briefing shows that the R-number, the number of people each infected person will infect, has decreased since early October, which is largely attributed to the stricter level 3 restrictions put in place before the last lock. mainly in the north of England.
On Wednesday, the number of people who reported testing positive for coronavirus across the UK fell below 20,000 for the first time in more than two weeks, while deaths fell slightly to 529. But the number of people hospitalized with Covid-19 appears poised to surpass the peak of the first wave in a few days, raising fears that the NHS will be overwhelmed and more non-urgent procedures will be suspended.
No 10 has emphasized the intention to allow a relaxation of the rules over Christmas, depending on the new data, but has declined to say what this would entail, how many people or households could come together and in what settings.
“We accept that it will not be a normal Christmas, but the prime minister has been clear in his wish that families can see each other,” the prime minister’s spokesman said on Wednesday. “I am not going to be able to establish any plans now, we will do it next week, and that will be based on the best and most recent data that is available.”
In response to the Downing Street briefing, MPs from the Covid Recovery Group, a collection of around 50 conservative backbenchers who are skeptical about the renewal of the lockdown, expressed concern about the scientists’ advice.
Mark Harper, the former whip boss who chairs the group, said the country “needs a different and lasting strategy to live with the virus that lasts beyond Christmas,” adding: “We cannot continue to live under a cycle of lockdowns and restrictions that hope people will be grateful for letting them out to enjoy the holiday season, only to have strict restrictions placed on them later that cause health problems and destroy their livelihoods. “
Steve Baker, the vice president, said: “Freedom cannot be just for Christmas. Blockades and restrictions cause immense non-Covid health, economic and social damage, and we need to start talking about them so that we know that the restrictions we are being asked to live under do not cause more harm than good to our citizens. “
