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The next two weeks will be “absolutely crucial” in ensuring that the coronavirus lockdown in England ends as planned on December 2, a government scientific adviser warned.
Professor Susan Michie, a member of the Government Emergencies Scientific Advisory Group (Sage), urged the public to resist breaking current rules, to “be fit” to spend the holiday period with loved ones.
He also suggested that the announcement of a possible Covid-19 vaccine could lead to complacency with the measures, adding that the jab “won’t make any difference” in the current wave.
It comes after documents released by Sage on Friday warned that a return to the tiered system of coronavirus restrictions will see infections spike again.
When asked what should replace the current restrictions when the lockdown ends, Professor Michie told BBC Radio 4’s Today show: “It’s too early to tell. I think the next two weeks will be absolutely crucial.
“It’s going to be a very challenging two weeks, partly because of the weather, partly because I think the promise of a vaccine can make people feel complacent.
“But it is very unlikely that the vaccine will arrive until the end of the year or the beginning of the next and that will not make any difference with the current second wave.
“So I think for the next two weeks, everyone has to put in all their determination.”
Professor Michie, a behavioral scientist at University College London, advised the public to “really pay attention to resisting any impulse to break the rules” about social distancing and visiting other homes.
“Because that will maximize the possibility that two weeks from now, on December 2, we will be in a position where we don’t actually have to continue the lockdown,” he added.
“And better yet, what everyone wants is to be in a position where they can spend the Christmas and winter holidays with their loved ones.”
When asked if this meant that earnings during the lockdown would be lost, Professor Michie said she was “quite hopeful” after tough measures in Wales and Northern Ireland lowered transmission rates.
(Image: Newcastle Chronicle)
The recently released documents, written the day before the second national lockdown was imposed, show a consensus statement prepared by a SAGE modeling subgroup that expressed concern about returning to the tier system.
The modeling found that if the lockdown is “well met,” the breeding number is likely to drop to less than 1, and hospital admissions and deaths are expected to decline until at least the second week of December.
But the document, dated November 4, adds: “If England reapplies the same tier system application before November 5, transmission will return at the same rate of increase as today.”
Other documents from the end of October say that the hopes of the families who will reunite at Christmas will also depend on the R-value staying below 1 for “some time.”
On Friday, SAGE said the R rate for the UK has fallen to 1-1.2, and experts believe it is already below 1 in some places.
R is expected to drop in more places next week or the following week as people remain under lockdown restrictions.
On Friday, the government said another 376 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19.
As of 9am on Friday, there had also been another 27,301 laboratory-confirmed coronavirus cases in the UK, compared to 33,470 on Thursday.
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