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Returning to a tiered system of coronavirus restrictions next month will see infections rise to the levels that led England into its second lockdown, government scientific advisers warned.
In recently released documents, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) said the country coronavirus The reproduction rate, or R-number, is likely to drop below 1 during the four-week lockdown.
But experts said infections “will return to the same rate of increase” as before national restrictions were imposed on November 5 if the country returns to its previous three-tier system.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has insisted that the latest lockdown will end on December 2, but it is unclear what restrictions will apply over the Christmas period.
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In its document, SAGE said that England’s lockdown “is likely to reduce R to less than 1” and that the number of hospital admissions and deaths “is expected to fall until at least the second week of December.”
But he cautioned that the “longer-term outlook” depends on “policies during the holiday period.”
“If England reverts to the same tiered system application before November 5, then the transmission will revert to the same rate of increase as today,” SAGE said in the November 4 document.
If the R value is greater than 1, then the COVID-19 The epidemic continues to grow, but if it is below 1, it indicates that the outbreak is in retreat.
The tier system in England saw the regions placed on three separate tiers classified as “medium”, “high” or “very high” based on their rate of coronavirus infections.
Under the Level 1 “medium” restrictions, areas were told to follow the rule of six whether they met indoors or outdoors and pubs and restaurants were required to close at 10pm.
Level 2 “high” restrictions also forced bars and restaurants to close at 10pm, but prohibited households from mingling indoors, and the rule of six applied when people gathered outside. .
Under the “very high” level 3 restrictions, no household could blend indoors or outdoors in hospitality venues or private gardens and the rule of six applied in open public spaces such as parks and beaches.
Pubs and bars that do not serve meals were forced to close and people were urged not to travel in and out of the area.
In its paper, SAGE said initial analysis suggested that level 3 measures in England had a “notable impact on transmission, but it is not yet clear whether they have been sufficient to reduce R below 1”.
Following England’s second lockdown, it was revealed on Friday that the UK’s R number has dropped slightly to a maximum of 1.2.
The figure is now between 1.0 and 1.2, down from between 1.1 and 1.3 last week.
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Experts believe the R-value is below one in some places, particularly parts of Wales and potentially parts of Scotland and the North West of England.
R is expected to drop in more places next week or the following week as people remain under lockdown restrictions.
