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It could have been in line with expectations.
It could be a somewhat nonsensical number, as it comes after such a sharp drop.
It could be short-lived.
Even so, there is still something impressive about the gross domestic product figure for the last quarter.
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Since statistics was invented in the 1930s, we haven’t seen anything like this: a quarterly expansion in economic production 15.5%.
In fact, pretty much the only moment of the past century that comes close was after the general strike of 1926, when the economy collapsed and then sharply recovered in the following months.
And that’s not a bad comparison, because in a sense what we’ve been through last year looks more like a general strike than a typical recession.
Vast swaths of the economy were forcibly closed to COVID-19 and then reopened.
What we learned this morning was the speed of that reopening.
There are two reasons for concern.
The first is that the economy is still smaller than it was before the virus appeared.
In the 1920s, after the general strike ended, UK economic output quickly recovered to a higher level than before the strike.
This time, the economy is still 8.2% smaller.
To some extent, this is to be expected; after all, the virus is still free; normal behavior has yet to reassert itself.
Still, the 1.1% growth in September was weaker than most economists had anticipated, underscoring that the rebound is not living up to expectations.
And that brings us to the second cause for concern: we are locked up again, at least in England.
This implies that, after this strong increase, the economy will plunge again in the coming months.
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In other words, we are in the middle of a W-shaped recession.
That there is more pain to come is no surprise.
The chancellor has already reinstated the license scheme, in anticipation of a difficult winter.
But it does mean that today’s numbers represent a kind of mirage.
Still, the news is not all bad.
The arrival of at least one effective vaccine for COVID-19 has already unchained optimism in the stock markets.
The collapse of the economy is comparable to the closure of large sectors of the economy in the general strike of 1926.
Many now anticipate a return to normality next year.
In fact, some economists believe that by the end of 2021, gross domestic product will finally return to pre-crisis levels.
Worry is what happens between now and then.
Many households face lean times, many workers face losing their jobs, and government debts mount all the time.
The cheap roller coaster has to travel further before stopping.
