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Brussels now regards a summit of EU leaders on November 19 as the deadline for a draft Brexit deal, and negotiations on Britain’s future trade and security relationship with the bloc are set to go all the way.
Negotiating teams working in London had hoped to pass an agreement on to MEPs for scrutiny before 18 November to allow time for parliamentary ratification, but talks remain difficult, according to sources on both sides.
Next Thursday’s videoconference summit of the 27 heads of state and government, organized to discuss the latest developments in the coronavirus pandemic, is now seen as a key moment in the Brexit saga.
“If there is no good news by then, then you really have to say that time is up, it just isn’t possible,” said a senior EU diplomat. “Leaders will need to see that it is there.”
A final arbitration session between Boris Johnson and the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, is also a possibility if the negotiators approach each other’s positions on pending issues.
The thorniest issues to be solved remain the level of access to UK waters provided to EU fishing fleets, how to maintain fair competition rules for companies, including rules on national subsidies, and the mechanism in the final treaty to resolve future disputes.
UK sources have complained that Brussels has not yet shown enough “realism” about the scale of the change in the level of fishing opportunities that the fleet of EU member states will have in Britain’s exclusive economic zone to starting next year.
In terms of ensuring a ‘level playing field’ for businesses in the UK and the EU, progress is being made on how the two parties’ internal subsidy regimes would work, but difficulties remain in establishing a mechanism to establish a foundation benchmarks of the social standards would be developed jointly for both sides.
Downing Street has insisted that the UK should be able to diverge from its rule book, while the EU has said it will not grant a “zero fee, zero fee” deal if British companies do not operate under rules that are at least equivalent. Downing Street. established by Brussels.
Despite the difficulties, the prime minister said on Sunday that a trade and security agreement was “to be done” and that the general outline was already “quite clear”. Johnson spoke with Von der Leyen on Saturday.
Brexit’s sliding schedule will be cause for concern in the European Parliament, where MEPs had insisted they would need to have the deal in front of them next Monday to begin the ratification process.
Parliament was expected to vote on the deal on December 16. European Parliament sources said an extraordinary chamber session may now have to be arranged for December 28, just three days before the end of the transition period when the UK leaves the single market and the customs union.