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Boris Johnson will be under even greater pressure to reach a Brexit deal with Brussels when Joe Biden enters the White House, conservatives and senior diplomats said Saturday, amid fears that a no-deal outcome could seriously threaten relations. with a new Democratic administration.
The Foreign Office and No. 10 are urgently trying to assess the UK foreign policy implications of a Biden presidency, including in areas such as Brexit, climate change, the Middle East, China and NATO.
But after a phone call on Saturday between Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen ended with Downing Street saying that “significant differences persist in several areas,” fears grew that both sides could be sliding toward an agreement.
Conservatives and pro-EU diplomats are concerned that a no-deal outcome will cause early and serious tension between London and Washington and put the special relationship at risk, given Biden’s stated opposition to Brexit, support for European integration and the support for the Good Friday Agreement. .
Biden, who is of Irish descent, has made clear that there will be no deal on a post-Brexit UK-US trade deal if a no-deal outcome threatens the Good Friday deal that he cherishes. His concerns about the threat to the deal in the event of a no-deal Brexit reached new heights after Johnson recently forced the passage of the domestic market law. Many saw the move as putting Brexit before the interests of peace in Ireland.
Senior Conservatives and other prominent pro-EU figures in Whitehall also point out that a post-Brexit UK-US trade deal might be less likely with Biden than it would have been with Trump. High-level diplomats believe that Biden could even prioritize a trade deal between the United States and the EU over one with the United Kingdom, as he tries to repair relations with the 27-nation bloc that were badly damaged by Donald Trump’s actions.
On Saturday night, one of Johnson’s former cabinet colleagues, Baroness Nicky Morgan, said that while in many respects Biden could prove to be a better ally than Trump in areas of UK foreign policy like NATO, the Middle East and climate change, the thorny issue of Brexit. it would have to be treated with great care.
Taking into account Biden’s warnings about peace in Northern Ireland, Morgan said: “I think the prime minister will not want the first conversation he has with Biden to be about Northern Ireland, Brexit and no deal. Getting a deal will make the conversation much easier. “
Former Cabinet Minister Damian Green added: “A deal is better than a no-deal for all kinds of reasons. But a Biden White House would be much more receptive to a UK-US deal if we already had one with the EU. “
Both Brussels and No. 10 made clear yesterday that Brexit negotiations remained stalled following the call between Von der Leyen and Johnson ahead of a decisive week of talks, even as tentative signs of a deal emerged around a transition period of five years on fishing rights.
The president of the European Commission and the prime minister highlighted in their post-call statements the controversial issues of the EU’s access to British waters and the agreement on future rules to ensure fair competition.
Von der Leyen tweeted that “some progress has been made, but big differences remain,” with just over a week left before parliamentary ratification of a trade and security agreement is due to begin.
A Downing Street statement stressed the need for “redoubled efforts” when the two sides, led by EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and his British counterpart David Frost, re-engaged on Monday.
“The prime minister noted that while some progress had been made in recent discussions, significant differences remain in several areas, including the so-called level playing field and fishing,” a Downing Street spokesman said after Saturday’s call. . “The prime minister and the president agreed that their negotiating teams would continue talks in London next week, starting Monday, in order to redouble efforts to reach an agreement.”
The negotiations are entering a decisive phase. But Barnier privately warned last week that the talks were not on a “trajectory” for a deal, telling MEPs that next week offered the last chance to find common ground.
It is understood, however, that there are tentative indications of agreement on a five-year transition period for fishing.
Barnier has told diplomats that the “gap” in fisheries is large when it comes to quotas and that “access to the 6-12 mile fishing zone” remains a sticking point for France and Ireland, who point out that their fishing fleets operate in those stretches of seas for centuries.
One source said the EU was trying to help Johnson overcome his political woes at home to get the deal out of line, but the gaps in terms of quotas were still too big for Brussels to start selling the deal. . to member states.
In Brussels, the biggest concern is the lack of progress on the issues of rules and internal subsidies, or state aid.
The EU has proposed high-level principles on state subsidies that both parties would agree to. The UK would also establish an independent competition authority and there would be a dispute resolution mechanism where both parties could retaliate swiftly during an arbitration period if there was a clear violation of the rules.
Downing Street has suggested, however, that the threshold for unilateral action should be a clear trade impact of a subsidy and not a mere risk.
Meanwhile, on the issue of standards, the UK agreed not to back down from current environmental, labor and social regulations, but there has been a conflict over how the two sides will develop their laws over time. “We are nowhere,” said a source.
