Wales Lockdown: Has the firewall had any impact?

The 17-day “firewall” lockdown began on October 23, but what has been its impact?

It covered half the school term and was destined to have an impact on reducing infections.

Prime Minister Mark Drakeford said it would be “a short, sharp shock to turn back time, slow down the virus and buy us more time.”

Earlier this week, he said that the restrictions had “stopped the speed” of the increase in cases and efforts had made a “real and positive difference” to ensure that the firewall did not have to be longer and more severe.

But there is concern that some areas of the South Wales valleys have seen increased case rates, with Merthyr Tydfil, Rhondda Cynon Taf and Blaenau Gwent among the highest rates in the UK.

So have we seen a difference yet? Here are some areas that we should consider.

Case rates – the number of positive tests per 100,000 people over seven days – help us see where and how quickly infections are spreading.

There have been concerns about how the number of cases in the valley heads has increased, with Merthyr Tydfil, Rhondda Cynon Taf and Blaenau Gwent seeing the cases start to rise and become the worst in the UK.

Wrexham and around Swansea and Neath Port Talbot have also seen increases during the firewall period.

But there are signs of improvement in the latest sets of figures.

Even Merthyr Tydfil, the worst in the UK at one point this week, has seen its case rate drop.

The positive test ratio is something that health officials and ministers have been keeping a close eye on.

Seven local areas in Wales are now above the 20% positivity rate, with nearly a third of all tests at Merthyr Tydfil coming back positive.

The World Health Organization has recommended that the test positivity rate should not exceed 5% before the areas go out of the restrictions.

That figure was also part of the calculations behind decisions to put areas under local lockdown in early fall.

But the worst may be over, although the next challenge is how to move forward to reduce it.

Independent statistician Jamie Jenkins, who was previously at the Office for National Statistics (ONS), said that we were starting to see the positivity rate plateau and start to decline in some areas.

“That is a positive sign, suggesting that we are seeing a tipping point in the rate of people coming back positive with Covid-19 in the community. We are seeing it in Wales in general, and in Merthyr Tydfil and Rhondda Cynon Taf.”

But he said that the data from the next few days would be crucial to identify whether the end of the blockade “would relight the fire.”

There is good news in that the proportion of people with Covid infections in Wales is increasing less steeply, according to the latest ONS survey.

He goes out to test thousands of people in Wales, just to see if they have the virus.

Analysis of thousands of swab tests can estimate that 26,100 people in Wales had Covid-19, about 0.89%, or one in 110 people, in the first week of the firewall.

This is just 1,000 more than last week’s estimate, showing that the infection appears to have slowed down. The previous week had seen an increase of 9,400.

“The positivity rates in Wales have increased in recent weeks, but the rate of increase is less steep compared to the previous weeks,” said the ONS.

Over a six-week period, he asked 15,844 people in Wales to do nose or throat swabs. He tested the results and found 84 positive results, from 64 people from 50 households.

One of the ideas behind the firewall was to reduce hospital admissions.

The daily average of confirmed and suspected Covid-19 admissions is about the same as when the firewall started.

There were 1,344 hospitalized patients with the virus, with 60 in intensive care, according to the latest available figure.

But beyond the statistics, the hospital doctors are already talking about “immense” pressure and are beginning to feel overwhelmed with Covid again.

Unlike the first wave, hospitals are trying to treat as many non-Covid patients as possible, and normal operations continue.

At the Royal Glamorgan Hospital in Rhondda Cynon Taf, they see Covid present itself in addition to other conditions that they would expect to deal with.

Nerys Conway, consultant in acute medicine, said: “I can’t believe how quickly the second wave has happened and how bad the patients are, they seem to be sicker this time than last time.”

Looking at mobile phone data can tell us how people’s behavior is changing due to various restrictions.

When we use phones, we go to Facebook or Google, it is possible to see the type of trips we do or if we spend more time at home.

This can help scientists know if the measures are working.

So if we look at what Google’s mobility data tells us, there has definitely been a drop in those trips to stores and for recreation.

Similar drops can be seen in the use of public transportation and people who do not commute.

It may seem obvious, but if we didn’t see it, it would be a sign that the firewall was failing its purpose.

What we can’t say is how different things could have been without the firewall.

And while some restrictions will be eased starting Monday, council leaders and health officials are emphasizing that everyone still has a role to play in helping control the spread of the virus.