[ad_1]
The UK today confirmed 23,287 more positive coronavirus tests and 355 deaths, as around 13,000 people are now hospitalized with the disease.
New cases of Covid-19 are down five percent from the 24,405 declared by health officials last Friday and less than the 24,141 diagnosed yesterday.
Deaths are the lowest since Monday, but are up 29.6 percent since last Friday, when there were 274. It can take several weeks for patients to become seriously ill, which means there is a delay between an increase in cases and deaths.
Data from the Health Department confirmed there were 12,999 people in the hospital with Covid-19 on Wednesday, the most recent figure, with 1,525 new admissions on Monday.
England began its second lockdown yesterday amid concerns that the rapid spread of the virus in September and October is causing a surge in hospital admissions in the north of England and raising fears that the NHS could be overwhelmed again.
But the move has proven controversial as data streams from various sources, some official and some not, appear to show that the local lockdown policy was working.
The Office for National Statistics today recorded the first decline in five weeks in its estimate of daily new infections in England, predicting that 45,700 people contracted the virus each day last week, up from 51,900 the previous week.
A weekly report by Public Health England showed that infection rates fell in more than half of local authorities during the middle of the period and experts say there is evidence that the three-tier system was working and that the peak of the second wave might even have passed.
The current increase in cases comes as a series of data points to a turning point in the UK outbreak.
England’s second lockdown began yesterday, but estimates of infections occurring across the country suggest that the outbreak had already begun to be brought under control, and fewer people were expected to contract the disease than in previous weeks.
Promising figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which runs a massive government surveillance scheme that randomly samples tens of thousands of people to track the size of the outbreak, suggest that 45,700 people contracted Covid-19 each day. last week in England. .
The number fell 12 percent in a week from 51,900 the previous week and represents the period through Oct. 31, the same day that Boris Johnson announced the country was heading for another economically crippling lockdown.
ONS estimates are based on tests performed over a two-week period and then compared to those conducted a month earlier.
For this reason, it still describes the positive test rates as increasing, because the most recent two-week period has increased over the previous two-week period, even though there was a decrease in the last seven days.
“The infection rate has increased in recent weeks, but the rate of increase is less pronounced compared to the previous weeks,” said today’s report.
He added: ‘There have been increases in positivity rates in all age groups except among older adolescents and young adults, where the rates now appear to be stabilizing; however, the highest rates continue to be observed in this group.
“There have been increases in positivity rates in all but one region (the North East) in England over the last two weeks; the highest rates of Covid-19 infection remain in the North West and in Yorkshire and The Humber.
“ During the most recent week (October 25-31, 2020), we estimated that there were around 8.38 new Covid-19 infections per 10,000 people per day in the community population in England, which is equivalent to around 45,700 new cases per day; the incidence appears to have stabilized at around 50,000 new infections per day ”.
The figures were based on 209,554 tests carried out in the last fortnight, of which 2,173 were positive. The positives came from 1,900 people in 1,494 households.
Experts said today that the ONS figures, which are considered the most accurate for estimating the actual size of the UK outbreak, were “welcome” and promising.
Professor James Naismith, who heads the Rosalind Franklin Institute of Science at the University of Oxford, said: ‘Today’s ONS data release for the week ending October 31 brings good news.
‘Although the virus is still growing, it appears to have stabilized … Importantly, these data present a picture consistent with the [Covid Symptom Study] data, that the virus is spreading steadily rather than increasing. This is proof that the pre-closure social restrictions have had a real impact. “
He said that if this is the peak of the second wave, he would not expect the death count to exceed 1,000 per day ‘for an extended period’, but that it was ‘very likely’ that it would be above 500 per day. for a moment.
Professor Naismith added: “If next week’s data shows a similar stabilization or reduction, then we can be sure that the second wave has stabilized for now.”
The scientists cautioned that although the infection figures seemed to be moving in the right direction, a week’s data was not enough to be sure of a trend. And the number of cases is still very high and the pressure on hospitals will increase.
Dr Paul Hunter from the University of East Anglia added: ‘Whether this turns out to be a temporary decline or a longer-term trend, possibly as a result of the imposition of the three-tier system, it is too early to tell.
“However, these observations are very welcome and hopefully when the current lockdown ends, we will continue to see a continued decline for the remainder of the year and through 2021.”
In other data suggesting that England’s outbreak was already beginning to slow down before the lockdown began, MailOnline’s analysis of Public Health England (PHE) statistics showed that more than half of local authorities scattered across England saw drop their infection rates in late October.
And rates even fell in areas that weren’t on Level Two or Three closures, suggesting that national rules like the 10 p.m. curfew and the rule of six were helping.
Other academics behind a symptom-tracking app are convinced that the country’s second wave has already peaked and is over. Even SAGE, the 10th advisory panel that spooked ministers into taking tougher action based on “inaccurate” models, admitted today that there is evidence that outbreaks are slowing down in “some parts” of England.
The group of leading scientists revealed that the UK R rate has remained between 1.1 and 1.3 for the second week in a row. It has fallen in five of England’s seven regions, including the North West, North East and the Midlands, where 10 million people already lived under the hardest level three curbs.
But amid growing calls on Number 10 to reassess whether there really is a need for the entire nation to be affected by the stricter rules from spring, the prime minister’s spokesman said: ‘The shutdown is four weeks until December 2nd. As we have said, the trend in hospital admissions is increasing ”.
It can take several weeks for coronavirus patients to become seriously ill, meaning that admissions and deaths will continue to rise because cases are still high. But eminent doctors and scientists argue that the wards are not busier than usual at this time of year and that there is still plenty of room across the country to treat those infected.
