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Polls have consistently put Joe Biden significantly ahead of Donald Trump at the state and national level, but how could Trump still win?
Are the pollsters wrong again? What does Biden need to do? Is the talk about overwhelming insanity? Will we get a result overnight? Or just weeks, maybe months of legal wrangling?
I have been talking to many voters, pollsters, and analysts to try to answer those questions.
A Trump victory?
It is absolutely possible, but your path is narrow. He needs to hold on to all the states he made in 2016, and that’s no easy feat for a sitting president. If you lose a state like Florida or Pennsylvania, with a large number of electoral votes, you would have to win over many smaller states; again, that is very difficult to do.
There are three key things that are making the race difficult for him this year:
- Demographics: A broader and more diverse electorate of Black and Latino voters leaning toward the Democrats
- No actual third-party candidates impacting Biden’s reach in key states
- An opponent who doesn’t have the sympathy problem that Hillary Clinton had.
Voters Who Could Help Trump Win
If the majority of white voters bet on Trump and turnout increases significantly among them, but not in other groups, he has a path.
It also appears to be doing a little better than before with black and Latino voters; That will help you, but it doesn’t mean a thing if you have a lot of white suburban voters.
If you win, it may be due to six factors:
- Better running game, with more door hits than Joe Biden
- Poor black voter turnout for Democrats
- Again underestimating the “timid” voter: those who do not openly admit they back Trump
- Large turnout in less populated states
- Register more voters than Democrats
- By not losing ground with Latino voters, and maybe even gaining something
Can we trust the surveys?
In 2016, pollsters did not take into account white voters with no college education and thus a big part of Trump’s appeal, but they tell me they are confident they have addressed that issue in their approaches.
Most will tell you that there is still a three-point margin of error in state and national polls. The difference between Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton is that he has broader, more consistent tracks.
What does Biden need to do to win?
Small improvements, not a political earthquake.
You can win by choosing voters who elected a third party. Conquer some, but not many suburban women. Picking up older voters, especially those affected by COVID-19. And getting college-educated white working-class voters that Clinton lost. Polls say he is doing all of that.
We’re taking small margins on key battlefields: In fact, if Biden gets just 1% of white undecided voters, he would trade four states and get 307 electoral votes, far more than the 270 he needs. If he can get black voters to vote like they did in 2012, he too could switch three states and win.
Is a landslide really possible?
Yeah, but you won’t hear anybody on Biden’s field use the L word. They keep talking about it being a close race.
They all have what Obama’s former chief strategist called 2016’s “Post-Poll Traumatic Stress Disorder”. They can’t afford to let voters get out of this, and they know what the polls say, many more Republicans will vote on the day. of the elections.
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What do the campaign travel times tell us?
Biden and his surrogates are historically going to out of reach places like Texas and Georgia, which shows confidence (it might be too much).
Hillary had a disastrous strategy of shooting at the moon while ignoring its so-called “blue wall” collapsing into the Rust Belt. He’s also going to places like Nebraska and Maine, which tells us that his team is also trying to prepare for a draw.
Donald Trump does not bet on long shots. He’s focused on many visits to the states where he won. If you secure them, that’s enough, but the margins were slim, so you don’t take anything for granted.
Can we deduce something from the early voting?
In short, no. It tells us that turnout should be high, but it is unwise to make inferences about the popularity of Trump or Biden from the numbers. More Republicans will vote on Election Day than by mail, and we have no idea what Election Day could really look like.
Will we get a result overnight?
It is not impossible. A landslide either way would clear things up. If Trump begins to lag significantly behind in key places like Florida and Arizona, the political math, as they say here, could become insurmountable.
But the race could be very close and much tighter than the polls suggest.
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Many of the battlefield states will not have decisive results at night, so delays are highly possible. Each team is legalized and hundreds of cases are already going through the courts. Pennsylvania, so key, could take days.
In 2000, the contested Gore / Bush election made its way to the Supreme Court. It could again and now the Conservatives have a 6-3 majority advantage there.
Where to look for clues about the result?
Keep an eye out for Maricopa, Arizona and Pinellas, Florida for signs of where the Latino vote is headed. Pinellas has also elected the president since 1980. Now he is a melting pot.
Look at Sumpter, Florida, for initial votes and an indication of whether or not there is a “gray revolt” against Trump.
Keep an eye out for Macomb, Michigan, for an idea of where the white vote of the socially conservative working class might lean.
If you want to monitor how Biden is doing in contested suburbs, Bucks County, Pennsylvania is a good barometer, and look to Westmoreland to see if Trump has been able to build on his success four years ago.
As for black voters, watch Milwaukee, Detroit, and Philadelphia to see if Biden has fared better than Clinton.
