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Senate Republicans are fighting to protect their majority as incumbents face a wave of competitive contests in states previously thought to be off limits to Democrats but are now election season battlegrounds. molded by Donald Trump.
The backlash against Trump has fueled competitive careers in states across the country, from Maine to South Carolina, from Arizona to Iowa, even Alaska – places where the president’s divisive politics and erratic response to the coronavirus pandemic have put a strain on some of the most veteran of the party. members and rising stars at risk. Faced with grim poll numbers and a “green tsunami” of Democratic fundraising, some Republicans are bracing for a “bloodbath” in the Senate.
Control of the Senate is essential for any president. Under the control of Republican Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Trump appointed three conservative justices to the supreme court and more than 200 justices to the lower federal courts, a legacy that will last much longer than his presidency. Without the Senate, Biden would face entrenched opposition to his agenda that could make the passage of any major legislation nearly impossible if the White House were to win.
McConnell, who prides himself on calling himself the “Grim Reaper” of Democratic legislative desires, easily defended himself against a challenge from Democrat Amy McGrath despite a slew of donations from liberal donors. Elected for a seventh term, it was far from clear whether he would retain the title of majority leader at the end of the night.
The political landscape has changed dramatically under the Trump presidency. For four years, youth and people of color have mobilized in their communities as Republicans lose their position in the suburbs amid a wave of defections, particularly of women.
Senate Republicans were always prepared to play defense this cycle, but they never expected to have so many races on the line. In total, 35 of the 100 Senate seats are up for grabs in this election and more than a third are competitive, many in states where Trump won four years ago.
The chamber is currently divided 53-47. Anticipating a defeat in Alabama, Democrats would have to win at least four seats to control the Senate if Biden wins, allowing Vice President Kamala Harris to break a tie.
Republicans have signaled that the Senate confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett before the Supreme Court is an achievement, hoping to remind voters of what a Trump presidency could produce, but little has changed the dynamics of the race. On the North Carolina presidential battlefield, the fate of Republican incumbent Thom Tillis appears to be closely related to the president.
It may also be true of Lindsey Graham, the prominent South Carolina senator and Trump critic turned golf partner and ally. When Barrett’s hearings focused on Graham, the chairman of the Senate judicial committee, his Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison raised a record sum of money, forcing the senator to take his opponent seriously. But the hearings also helped Graham, boosting his fundraising in the final weeks of the toughest campaign of his political career.
Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, known as a cross-party centrist, is fighting for her political survival after sparking liberal outrage over her support for Brett Kavanaugh’s appointment to the supreme court and the tax cut bill. of the president.
Demographic shifts and a riot in the suburbs are putting Republicans in the West in jeopardy, where Senator Cory Gardner of Colorado, a freshman who won his election six years ago in this increasingly blue state, and the Senator Martha McSally of Arizona, an Air Force veteran who was appointed to the seat after the death of Senator John McCain, are among the Republicans most threatened. Caught between a Trump-loving base and moderate voters turning away from him, both candidates have chosen to align themselves closely with the president, perhaps at their own risk.
The parties have all but abandoned the race for Colorado, expecting Gardner to lose to Democrat John Hickenlooper, a former Colorado governor. In 2018, McSally lost a race for the other Arizona Senate seat to a Democrat, Kyrsten Sinema. This year, he has consistently followed his opponent Mark Kelly, a former astronaut and husband of former Arizona Congresswoman Gabby Giffords. If McSally loses, Arizona will have sent two Democrats to the Senate for the first time in generations.
Similar dynamics are also shaping a pair of Senate races in Georgia and a race in Texas, where incumbent John Cornyn is expected to stick.
In Iowa, Senator Joni Ernst, a member of the Republican leadership who was seen as an award-winning recruit in 2014, is also seen as vulnerable.
In these races, Democrats have made health care a priority, linking the public health crisis to repeated, yet so far unsuccessful, attempts by Republicans to dismantle the Affordable Care Act.
In perhaps the most unexpected battlefield of the cycle, Alaska Senator Dan Sullivan suddenly found himself dodging a serious challenge from Al Gross, a grizzly fighting orthopedic surgeon who identifies as independent but aligns himself with the Democrats.
Republicans are playing offense in Alabama, a deeply conservative state where Senator Doug Jones, a Democrat, scored a narrow victory in a special election in 2017. Now Jones faces an uphill battle to hold onto the seat against his Republican opponent, Tommy Tuberville, a former Auburn football coach. Republicans are also waging a fierce fight for a seat in Michigan, where John James, a black businessman and Republican rising star, is gaining ground from Democratic incumbent Gary Peters.
Like the presidential election, an avalanche of early voting can delay the outcome in some states for days or possibly weeks. And the fight for control of the Senate may not be decided for months, depending on the results in Georgia, where one or both Senate elections could reach a second round if neither candidate gets a majority of votes.
