UK coronavirus live: PM would have saved thousands of lives with earlier shutdown, says Sage scientist | Politics

Good Morning. One of the criticisms of Boris johnsonThe handling of the coronavirus is that it has not managed expectations well. Temperamentally prone to over-optimism, he has been constantly downplaying the extent to which blocking measures will be required, only to find that Covid’s reality proves him wrong.

We may be getting a new example today.

Johnson will make a statement to MPs this afternoon about the England-wide lockdown announced on Saturday and, based on excerpts released ahead of time, will say that the deaths would have been twice as severe as during the first wave without one. He will say:

Our scientists’ models suggest that unless we act now, we could see deaths during the winter that are twice as bad or more as compared to the first wave.

Given these latest figures, there is no choice but to take new actions at the national level.

But Johnson will also minimize the possibility that the lockdown will have to be extended. He will say:

At the end of the four weeks, on Wednesday, December 2, we will seek to ease the restrictions, returning to the tiered system at the local and regional level according to the latest data and trends.

This line has caused a sensation in the Daily Express.

But is this credible? Not according to the rest of Fleet Street, which gives more weight to what Michael Gove said yesterday about how the closure might have to be extended, in addition to what ministers and officials are reporting on the background.

Here’s the splash from the Times.

Here are some quotes from the Times (paywall) story of ministers who are unwilling to trust the prime minister’s assurances.

Cabinet ministers said The times who believed it would be “very difficult” to end the lockdown if deaths and hospital admissions continued to rise.

“There is a delay in these things,” said one. “The fear will be that in four weeks the deaths will be higher than they are now, which will give credibility to people who want to maintain national measures.”

Another said: “I think it will be after the new year. The transmission rate will not drop enough to justify it. Just look at the charts. It’s going to be a job disaster. “

And here are some headlines from other newspapers that signal concerns that the lockdown will have to be extended.

Johnson will be standing in the Commons after 3:30 p.m. and this could turn out to be one of his most awkward parliamentary appearances since the pandemic began. Many Conservative MPs are very unhappy with the shutdown, and it is doubtful that they will accept his claim that it can only last four weeks. We don’t know yet if they’ll vent their mass anger on camera, but if they do, Johnson could face a tough afternoon.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30 am: Sadiq Khan, Mayor of London, delivers a speech at the London 2020 Conference.

10.30 am: Douglas Ross, the Scottish Conservative leader, delivers a speech on the union to the Policy Exchange think tank.

11.40 am: Sir Keir Starmer gives a speech at the CBI conference.

12:00 h: Downing Street is expected to hold its daily lobby briefing.

12:15 pm: Mark Drakeford, the Welsh Prime Minister, gives a briefing in which he is expected to announce what will happen in Wales when its shutdown ends next week.

12:15 pm: Nicola Sturgeon, the Prime Minister of Scotland, conducts a briefing on the coronavirus.

After 3:30 p.m.: Boris Johnson makes a statement to MPs about his plans for a blockade across England.

Politics Live is now doubling down as the UK’s coronavirus live blog and given the way the Covid crisis overshadows everything, this will continue for the foreseeable future. But we will also cover political stories that do not belong to Covid, and when they seem more important or more interesting, they will take precedence.

Here’s our global coronavirus live blog.

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