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Well, it cannot be said that we were not warned. It’s not just that Sage, the government’s Scientific Advisory Committee for Emergencies, was urging Boris Johnson in September to impose a “circuit breaker” lockout across England. Back in March, Sage experts were saying there might have to be multiple crashes. This is from a “consensus opinion” statement (pdf) from SPI-MO, the Pandemic Influenza Scientific Group on Modeling, a subcommittee of Sage. It was drafted on March 16, a week before Johnson announced the first strict lockdown. SPI-MO said:
It was agreed that the addition of general social distancing and school closings to case isolation, home isolation and social distancing of vulnerable groups would likely control the epidemic if it remained in place for an extended period. SPI-MO agreed that this strategy should be followed as soon as possible, at least in the first instance.
It was agreed that a policy of alternating between periods of more and less stringent social distancing measures could be plausibly effective in keeping the number of critical care cases within capacity. These should be in place for at least the better part of a year. Under such a policy, at least half of the year would be spent under the strictest social distancing measures.
As you know, Johnson announced last night the second all-England lockout. Here’s our story overnight.
Today we will get the full reaction. Here are at least three groups whose responses will be critical.
1) Conservative MPs. Many of Johnson’s MPs were already unhappy with the restrictions in place, and Saturday’s announcement came as a shock. A backlash is already taking place. This is from an article (paywall) that Sir Iain Duncan Smith, the former cabinet minister and former party leader, has written for the Sunday Telegraph today. He says:
The Prime Minister’s announcement of a month-long lockdown is a severe blow to the British people. Just when the economy was recovering, even giving reason for optimism, we are now going to supplant ourselves with the Grand Duke of York, yielding to scientific advisers and driving England back into another national lockdown …
Let’s be very clear. There has been a lot of talk about circuit breakers, but what was announced on Saturday night was a commercial circuit breaker. Nor is it likely to be limited to four weeks.
2) Business. The government has announced that its leave plan, under which employees can earn up to 80% of their salary, will be extended while the shutdown is in effect. But will that be enough to avoid a job crisis?
3) Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. All three decentralized administrations have already launched their own versions of circuit breaker lockouts, ahead of England, even though the number of cases is lower in Scotland and Wales. But at the time they did not get the financial support that is now available across the UK, and they seek assurances that they will not lose out if they start lifting their own restrictions before England.
Here is the agenda for the day.
8.30 am: Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, is interviewed at Sky’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday. Other interviewees include Sir Mark Walport, former UK Government Senior Scientific Adviser, and Dame Carolyn Fairbairn, CBI Managing Director.
9 am: Sir Keir Starmer, the Labor leader, is interviewed on the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show. Other interviewees include Gove and Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust and a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Committee for Emergencies (Sage).
Here’s our global coronavirus live blog.
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