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IIf the poll numbers are to be believed, Joe Biden has already won this week’s US presidential race. But after the painful experience of 2016, when Donald Trump unexpectedly appeared from behind, few voters, election analysts, or even pollsters have complete faith in opinion poll predictions.
One exception is James Carville, Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign strategist, who says a landslide victory for Biden, plus a Democratic Senate inauguration, is a hit. “This is not going to be close,” he said last month. His interviewer was too polite to point out that Carville also predicted a Hillary Clinton landslide four years ago.
The betting coverage by commentators is understandable but not entirely rational. By most poll measures, Biden has held a clear lead over Trump for months in the vast majority of national and changing state polls (battlefield).
The race is noticeably tight. But with four days to go, Biden’s average national advantage was 7.4%, or roughly 51% to 43%. As of October 29, it also led in all major swing states, namely Florida (by an average of 1.9%), Pennsylvania (5.8%), Michigan (8.4%), Wisconsin (7 , 8%), North Carolina (2.1%) and Arizona (3.4%).
Some of these margins are narrow. But under “winner takes all” rules, all polling station votes in a state go to the candidate who comes out ahead, even if only by 0.1%. In 2016, Trump won the university and thus the election, thanks to victories of less than 2% in four states, including Florida with its 29 university votes.
This time, the polls suggest, the opposite may happen. In other words, Trump could be on the losing end of close results in swing states. There may also be surprises, for example in Georgia and even Texas, states that traditionally vote Republican but are considered competitive this year.
Given that he lost the 2016 popular vote by nearly three million ballots, Trump can nonetheless pin his hopes on pulling off the electoral college stunt again. You have made clear your willingness to challenge the result if it goes against you. He could ask the Supreme Court, with its recently enhanced conservative majority, to rule, as it did in 2000 when George W Bush sneaked past Al Gore.
Billboard-goers who fear being caught again should study poll data, such as Trump’s average approval ratings. Overall, 53% of Americans disapprove of the work you are doing, versus 44% who approve. In economics, it has a positive score of 2.3%, but in its handling of the coronavirus pandemic, it gets a negative rating of 16.5%.
Viewed another way, a current average across all polls suggests that 50.4% of Americans have a favorable opinion of Biden, while Trump’s figure is 41.9%. In fact, Trump has not surpassed a favorable rating of 44% at any point in his presidency. Its poor performance is nothing if not consistent.
American pollsters also evaluate voters by gender, race, education, and religion. While Trump has strong support from white men with no college education and Christian evangelicals, for example, Biden is said to be far ahead of all female voters, especially suburban white women, college graduates and the catholic ones.
Biden is also counting on winning a large majority of black voters. It is believed that the Latino vote could be divided. Democratic successes in the 2018 midterm elections, when the party won control of the House of Representatives, were driven by these groups.
Meanwhile, some polls point to a 100-seat Democratic inauguration in the Senate. Republicans, who now have a small majority there, have the most to lose. Seven out of nine “drawings” are conducted by Republican senators.
It’s always possible that the poll’s predictions of a Biden win on Tuesday are overstated. But it seems unlikely that Trump will be able to reverse the voting intentions that have been firmly in place for months. Almost 90 million Americans have already voted. It is too late to change your mind. Even if the polls are as wrong as in 2016, Biden’s margin of advantage is so great that he still wins. Probably.
