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A second national blockade. It was something the prime minister said would be a “disaster” for this country and something that he promised to do “everything in his power” to avoid. But now Johnson is ready to announce exactly that.
The measures are still under discussion – with a cabinet meeting scheduled for this afternoon – but in the P.M The table is a one month lock until November.
The public is expected to be asked to stay home once again. But unlike the last shutdown, the prime minister will keep schools, colleges and universities open.
The hope is that the action will slow the spread of the disease and allow ministers to ease restrictions on Christmas.
Under the plans being discussed today, the government would use its leveling measures to allow different regions to exit the national lockdown at different points depending on the infection rate.
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It is certainly politically extremely difficult for a prime minister who has strenuously rejected calls for a national shutdown for weeks.
Many of his MPs are furious this morning at the prospect of this U-turn, with some high-ranking ministers pressuring the prime minister to stick to his regional approach and introduce a new, stricter ‘Level 4’ instead of blocking the whole country.
But the number of cases and the ICU case projections are “terrifying,” to quote a high-ranking government figure.
“Politically, it would be easier to keep the regional focus and introduce a new level rather than national level measures, but our first duty is moral,” said a senior government figure. “And that makes these tough decisions easier to make.”
The documents, presented at a meeting on Friday between Prime Minister, Chancellor Rishi Sunak, Health Secretary Matt Hancock and Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove, show that “all models suggest a significantly higher peak than estimates at any point in the current ‘Reasonable Worst Case’ “.
The document says that “median peak infections are projected to be 50% to 150% higher” than the first wave.
The warnings have been there for weeks. Documents released by SAGE revealed that ministers had been told the pandemic was on track to violate the “reasonable worst case scenario” drawn up by the Cabinet Office.
85,000 deaths had been planning assumptions over the winter, but the data is getting worse.
At the center of No 10’s concern is the capacity of the NHS. A document circulating in the government paints the picture of an NHS unable to accept more patients by Christmas, with hospitalizations expected to peak in mid-December before falling again in the new year.
The prime minister was expected to announce his plans on Monday, but No. 10 could decide this weekend to advance announcements following the leak of the meeting between the prime minister and his three cabinet ministers on Friday night.
Issue 10 is furious that details of the national measures have been leaked to journalists and they have launched an official investigation.
This is a U-turn that may well be fiercely contested by his own MPs and seized upon by his political opponents who called on the prime minister to follow the advice of his own scientific advisers and introduce a brief two-week lockdown in October.
Johnson declined, and now, instead, we hope to move to a one-month shutdown in November.