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With the United States Presidential Election In a few days, the focus will be on the priorities that the winner will have during his four years in power in the White House.
With Joe biden Staying ahead in the polls, questions are being asked about what a victory for the Democratic nominee might mean for a post-Brexi UK-US trade agreement.
Donald trump He has spoken of a free trade agreement between the two countries, claiming that the “special relationship” fostered between the United Kingdom and the United States for more than half a century would put Britain firmly “at the forefront”.
But if Joe Biden wins, what impact would his presidency have on the US-UK trade talks?
Joe Biden’s recent Brexit intervention
The US Democratic presidential candidate warned Boris Johnson that the UK must honor the Good Friday Agreement or there will be no separate trade agreement with the United States.
The Good Friday Agreement was reached in 1998 and helped end the period of conflict in Northern Ireland called Troubles.
The internal market bill proposed by the UK government threatens to break the Northern Ireland protocol, which could lead to the imposition of a physical customs border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
Politicians in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland have spoken out against the reintroduction of the borders, fearing a return to the dark days of unrest.
The bill that violates international law has also angered those in Brussels and the United States.
Biden, a proud Irish-American Catholic, tweeted in September: “We cannot allow the Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland to become a victim of Brexit.
“Any trade agreement between the US and the UK must depend on respecting the Agreement and preventing the return of a firm border. Period.”
His comments echo Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, who said there is “no possibility” that a trade agreement between the United Kingdom and the United States will pass through the United States Congress if the United Kingdom violates international agreements and undermines the Good Friday Agreement.
Top UK government figures have tried to allay fears from both the EU and the US.
Johnson said: “I think that when they understand what we are trying to do, they will share our ambition and concern, which is to protect the peace process.”
What has Biden said about Brexit before?
Just one day after the 2016 referendum, then-Vice President Joe Biden admitted that he would have “preferred a different outcome.”
On a visit to Ireland, Biden said: “As old friends from the UK, America respects your decision.” “It’s not how we would have preferred it to be, but [we] respect their position “.
Biden hasn’t been afraid to give his opinion on Brexit since leaving the Oval Office in 2016.
Speaking at a Chatham House talk in October 2018, Biden spoke about how America’s interests in the UK had “waned” after Brexit.
He even admitted that if he had been able to vote, he would have voted to stay.
“If I had been a member of parliament, if I had been a British citizen, I would have voted against leaving,” he said.
“From the perspective of the United States, the interests of the United States are diminished since Great Britain is not an integral part of Europe and can exert influence.
“There is a growing awareness that Britain played a role in Europe over the past 30 years that went far beyond the notion of open borders and trade, and could influence attitudes.”
He referenced the “special relationship” of the United Kingdom and the United States, but hinted that it could decline after Brexit.
“There is a special relationship: we have come face to face on almost every important issue. Without fully integrated England, to the extent that it is distant, our ability to influence events on the continent diminishes, ”he added.
What has Trump said about Brexit in the past?
On the same day that Joe Biden admitted that he would have preferred a “different outcome” to the EU referendum, Donald Trump spoke enthusiastically about how it was a “great … fantastic thing” for the UK.
At the reopening of the Trump Turnberry Golf Course in Scotland, the US presidential hopeful said: “I think something great has happened. It is an incredible vote, very historic.
“People are angry all over the world. They are angry about borders, they are angry about people coming into the country and taking over and nobody knows who they are.
“They are angry about many, many things in the UK, America and many other places. This will not be the last.”
That rhetoric has largely held up during his presidency, with the Republican highlighting his Scottish ancestral roots from his mother’s side and speaking out about his admiration for Winston Churchill.
However, the prospect of a UK-US trade deal runs parallel to Trump’s “America First” trade policy, which apparently seeks to ensure that the US maintains the upper hand in negotiations with countries. foreign.
Trump has criticized the UK’s handling of Brexit in the past.
The US president was highly critical of then-Prime Minister Theresa May, suggesting that their Brexit deal “sounds like a big deal for the EU” and meant that the UK might not be able to trade with the US.
Trump has not been afraid to provide ongoing commentary on negotiations in the past, promising to deliver a “magnificent” trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom when he met with Boris Johnson in September 2019.
What do the experts say?
A key negotiator involved in securing the EU-Canada trade deal, something Boris Johnson himself has announced as the gold standard for a UK-EU trade deal, told ITV News that the UK will likely fall on the priority list. of the United States if Biden wins.
Jason Langrish, executive director of the Canada and Europe Business Roundtable, said: “I suspect that Biden would follow a similar policy. He would probably see a deal with the EU and reestablishing relations with China as top priorities.
“I suspect that Biden would spend the first year or two reintegrating the United States into international bodies, including his presence at the WTO.”
However, Langrish cautioned that Trump’s re-election cannot be good news for the UK either.
He warned: “Personally, I don’t think the Trump administration will deliver a deal to the UK anytime soon if it gets re-elected. He’s very American in the first place, so I’m not sure what he would be willing to offer. The UK thinks that can get it.
“The irony about Brexit is that the Johnson government is positioning it as a way for the UK to regain its own trade policy at a time when liberalized trade is out of fashion.”
Dr Michelle Bentley, international relations reader and director of the Center for International Security at Royal Holloway University, said the UK’s Internal Market Act has highlighted the fragility of relations between Biden and the UK government. .
However, she believes there is a trade deal to strike a deal with Biden, but it may not be the one the UK wants.
“Biden has spoken about applying ratings to trade deals that align with his values, such as human rights,” he said.
“So the UK will still get a deal, but Biden can ask the British government to accept Brexit-related conditions that it doesn’t like, like protecting Ireland.
“Biden is a big fan of the EU and other European countries like Germany. And her running mate Kamala Harris has always been more interested in other areas of the world like Japan.
“Biden may want to make deals with those partners first, and therefore the UK would be well below the pecking order in terms of trade deals.”
When it comes to securing a trade deal with Trump if he secures another four years, Dr. Bentley said the Internal Market Act could have a detrimental impact on the talks.
She said: “President Donald Trump has always been seen as the pro-Brexit, pro-Johnson option. But it’s worth noting that the Trump administration is also unhappy with the situation in Ireland.
“While Trump has supported Brexit, this may be a step too far. While considered the most comprehensive option, this may have implications for a trade deal, which do not compare well to the UK. “
The sentiment that the UK will fall into the pecking order is a sentiment shared with US trade experts as well.
Hoyt Bleakley, professor of economics and at the University of Michigan, told ITV News: “I think President Trump’s speech on trade is mostly a braggart.
“For example, Trump described our previous regional free trade agreement between Canada, the United States and Mexico as disastrous and ‘the worst agreement in history.’ However, the replacement agreement turned out strikingly similar. I would expect a trade deal between Trump and Johnson to be similarly shallow for the most part. “
“My guess is that a Biden administration would be more focused on the London administration on various tax havens.
“Geography makes a trade deal with North America a poor substitute for one with Europe.”
Watch Trump vs Biden: Results on Tuesday, November 3 starting at 11 pm ITV
