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England has breached its “reasonable worst case” scenario for COVID-19 infections and hospital admissions, government scientific advisers said.
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) also warned that the number of daily deaths in England is in line with that scenario, but “it will almost certainly exceed it in the next two weeks.”
His warning came at the last meeting of the group’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza Modeling Group (SPI-MO) on October 14, the proceedings of which were released on Friday.
They said the reasonable worst-case planning scenario is not a forecast of what will happen but is used to help plan for COVID-19 through the winter.
If the number of new infections falls in “the very near future,” this overcoming a reasonable worst-case scenario “could continue for only three to four weeks,” the group said.
“But if R stays above 1, the epidemic will move further away from the planning stage.”
Since then, R number – the average number of people that a person infects with COVID-19 – has remained above 1.
And in Greater Manchester, most hospital trusts there could exceed their critical care capacity next week due to high hospital admissions for COVID-19, according to an internal NHS document leaked to The Independent.
The prime minister last appeared at the Downing Street coronavirus briefing more than a week ago, on October 22.
New infections that double every 10-15 days.
SPI-MO warned that new infections in the UK are doubling every 10-15 days.
“There is full consensus in SPI-MO that the current outlook for the trajectory of the epidemic is worrying, if there are no decisive widespread interventions or behavioral changes in the short term,” the group said.
Many areas of England have been placed at Level 3, but there is concern that cases will continue to rise
In England, models suggest there are an average of 43,000 to 74,000 new infections per day, significantly above the reasonable worst-case scenario of 12,000-13,000 for the entirety of October.
A smear survey conducted by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimated that an average of 336,500 people had COVID-19 in the community, not in hospitals or nursing homes, in the week through October 8, with 27,900 new infections. every day.
In Wales, an average of 7,900 people had COVID-19 during that week, but the group said it is “very likely” that both countries have seen a daily increase since then.
South West has the highest R-number and daily growth rate
Looking at regions of England, the group found that despite the Southwest being touted as one of the lowest rates, it has the highest R-number and daily growth rate.
Estimates showed that the region had an R number of 1.3-1.6 and a daily growth rate of between + 6% and + 10%, with the South East and East of England following closely behind.
On the other hand, London had the lowest, with its R number at 1.1-1.4 and a daily growth rate of between + 2% and + 5%.
Testing delays reduce the effectiveness of contact tracing
The group found that the volume of testing for COVID-19 has varied “considerably” over time, depending on the region.
He said there was an indication that the distribution of testing delays has changed “noticeably” with increasing demand and having more testing, but with more delays it would only hamper testing and tracing efforts.
“Delays of more than 24 hours result in greatly reduced contact tracing efficiency,” the group said.
“Increasing the supply of evidence will potentially reduce the effectiveness of contact tracing if this leads to further delays, particularly the proportion returned within 24 hours.”
