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London leaders believe the capital is facing a Level 3 lockdown in just two weeks as coronavirus cases rise.
Sadiq Khan’s allies said it is “very likely” that the capital of 9 million people will be plunged into the tightest restrictions within 15 days.
West Midlands leaders said yesterday that they believe they will face Level 3 next week, while Level 3 talks are still ongoing with much of the Northeast.
By next week, 11 million people will be under England’s strictest rules, which close bars and pubs unless they can operate as a restaurant and impose restrictions on travel and meetings.
And 32.6 million people will be under Level 2 or 3 rules, creating what critics call a seminal stealth lockdown.
But scientists warn that the current expansion of Level 3 still won’t be enough to fight the virus.
Conservative ministers refuse calls to impose a full-blown national blockade as in France. But they are considering moving more areas to Level 3, and they haven’t ruled out a new, even stricter Level 4.
No10 is reportedly considering a Level 4 where only essential schools and stores remain open.
Chancellor Dominic Raab today refused to dismiss the drastic plan.
He told the BBC: “We are always ready for further action we can take
“But I think the most important of the additional measures is that we continue on the path that we are following to attack the virus.”
A study by Imperial College London yesterday estimated that ‘R’ was 1.56 nationally and 2.86 in London, much higher than the official figure.
It is understood that London health officials are still working from the ‘official’ R – 1.1-1.3 in the capital, but the study surprised them.
There are still no active talks between Mayor Sadiq Khan and the government about moving to Level 3.
But an ally of the mayor predicted: “From the way things are looking (cases increase, hospitalizations increase), it seems very likely that London will enter Level 3 in a couple of weeks.”
Khan is still pushing for a short shutdown of the national “circuit breaker,” but sources say Level 3 looks “very likely” if it doesn’t.
It comes after a major expansion of the Tier 3 rules after a series of conversations this week with leaders in the North and Midlands.
West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire and Warrington have been added to the Tier 3 list in the last few days.
Level 3 restrictions prohibit residents from meeting people other than their home or bubble, either indoors or in gardens or beer gardens.
Meetings are only allowed in open spaces such as parks, within the rule of six, or those that are included in an exemption such as workplaces.
Level 3 residents are also advised not to travel in or out of the area or to stay overnight unless strictly necessary.
Interim analysis from Imperial College London, which collected data from October 16-25, suggested that there were around 96,000 new infections per day.
And he estimated the R number to be above 2 in London, the South East, the East of England and the South West, even though none of those areas were at Level 3.
Study author Professor Steven Riley said “current measures are not enough” and said “there would be genuine benefits to some kind of national policy.”
(Image: Brochure)
He told the BBC: “We could prevent the pattern in the south from becoming the current pattern in the north and cause a reversal in the north as quickly as possible.”
“If we are going to end up using those restrictions that have been introduced in other parts of Europe today and yesterday … we should think at the right time. And sooner rather than later for this.”
“There has to be a change. The growth rate that we are seeing in this data is really quite fast, so one way or another there has to be a change before Christmas.”
Raab insisted today that a full-blown national blockade was not inevitable despite growing calls to implement one.
He told the BBC: “I don’t think that’s correct, but what guides us is the rate of the virus.
“We’ve seen some evidence since we started implementing this tiered approach that the rate of increase has slowed.”
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