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The COVID-19 epidemic has reached a “critical stage” with nearly 100,000 people infected a day in England and the spread of the virus rapidly increasing, the scientists warned.
Researchers from Imperial College London say existing measures to control the virus they do not work.
And they argue that stricter measures are needed across the country “sooner rather than later.”
The latest round of testing for the widely respected REACT-1 study suggests that one in 78 people in England has the virus. And the epidemic doubles every nine days.
Stronger measures need to take effect, experts say
Professor Paul Elliott, one of the principal investigators, said: “We are in a critical period of the second wave of the epidemic.
“We are seeing an increasing rate of the virus in all regions.
“Regardless of what is happening, whether it is the behavior (of the public) or the implementation of current policy, it has not been enough to reject that rate of increase.”
The REACT-1 study is considered one of the most accurate assessments of the epidemic, with tens of thousands of randomly selected people tested for symptoms or not about every month.
The swabs in the last phase of the study were performed between October 16 and 25.
The results, which have not yet been peer-reviewed, show that 96,000 people are infected each day, almost as many as at the peak of the first wave.
The prevalence of the virus remains highest in hotspots in the north.
In Yorkshire and the Humber, an estimated one person in 36 is infected. In the Northwest, it’s one in 44.
But the fastest growth rates are now in the south, with the R number in London as high as 2.86. In the south east, south west and east of England it is above 2, a markedly exponential growth.
“South is where North was a few weeks ago,” said Professor Elliott.
“There have been rapid increases, albeit from lower levels.
“If we can reduce the value of R in the south, hopefully we will not reach the high prevalence rates that we find in other regions.
“But something has to happen. Either because the public realizes how serious this is, with the increase in hospital admissions and deaths, or if more intensive measures are required, that is a political decision.”
Experts warn: “The coexistence of high prevalence and rapid growth means that the second wave of the epidemic in England has now reached a critical stage.
“Whether through regional or national measures, it is now critical to control the virus and put R below one if more hospital admissions and deaths from COVID-19 are to be avoided.”
Infection rates remain highest in people ages 18 to 24, but the fastest increases occurred in older age groups, with the infection rate tripling in people ages 55 to 64 in the past month .
The study suggests that an exponential increase in hospital admissions and deaths is inevitable in the coming weeks.
Professor Steven Riley, another of the principal investigators, said he was “really disappointed” when he saw the results.
Nottingham will enter level 3 restrictions on Friday
“The direct projection of these numbers would lead to very high levels of cases by Christmas,” he said.
“If we are going to consider doing something stricter sometime during the winter, then it becomes a matter of time.
“These results argue for something sooner rather than later.”
The only bright spot in an otherwise bleak set of results was that the epidemic’s rate of increase in north-east England has slowed dramatically over the last month, suggesting strong compliance with social distancing.
Professor Helen Lambert, a medical anthropologist at the University of Bristol, told Sky News that the government needs to rebuild public trust, so that the country can be united again against the virus.
“There is confusion and frustration,” he said.
“We have tiers, tiers, variations at the local authority and district level, and it’s hard to keep up with them.
“So it’s not about people saying ‘to hell with this, let’s not bother.’ The vast majority are trying to do the right thing.
“People are still trying to stick to what they know to do, but it’s getting harder and harder to know what they are supposed to do.”
Jonathan Ashworth MP, the shadow health secretary, said: “With an estimated R of 1.6, the virus continues to grow across the country, inevitably leading to further loss of life, serious damage and immense pressure on the NHS.” .
“Boris Johnson should have used the school semester to implement a time-limited circuit breaker to reduce infections, fix testing, and track and save lives. Instead, the prime minister told us that his current approach would make the R number less than 1.
“Ministers must now outline whether they believe their current approach is delivering on that promise.”
