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Two deadly enemies merge to become more powerful than ever.
It may sound like the plot of a superhero movie, but this is the story of FC Midtjylland, Liverpool’s rival in the Champions League on Tuesday.
The Danish team didn’t even exist just over two decades ago, but they have become national champions three times and are now looking to turn the odds in Europe.
Dubbed ‘Moneyball FC’, Midtjylland has been using statistics and data analysis to significant effect, attracting underrated players cheaply, unleashing their talents, and selling them for big profits.
It’s a system also used by championship Brentford, which is not surprising given that the owner of the Bees is also the majority shareholder of FC Midtjylland, but his approach has influenced many clubs, including Liverpool.
‘We were two clubs that hated each other’
Midtjylland was born 21 years ago when two clubs, Ikast and Herning Fremad, merged and the new club took its name from the region in which they were based.
The impact was immediate, as they achieved promotion to the Danish top flight in their first season of existence.
“We were two merged clubs that hated each other and now we are in the Champions League against all odds,” director Rasmus Ankersen told BBC World Service Sport.
“It arose out of necessity and limitations, we are not one of the big cities in Denmark and we compete against more privileged clubs.”
However, it wasn’t until after the acquisition by pro gamer-turned-soccer analyst Matthew Benham in 2014 that things really took off for Midtjylland.
“We have developed a lot in the last three years,” goalkeeper Jesper Hansen told BBC World Service Sport.
“It has been a path that goes up and now we are on top of the mountain with the best in Europe.”
Statistics how to do it
Benham is a lifelong Brentford fan who had taken over the Bees two years prior to their arrival in Midtjylland and, through his company, Smartodds, the Danish team had access to a huge database of footballers in All Europe.
The system analyzes the performance of the players, using metrics such as the opportunities created and the quality of the crossing, with the aim of finding talent that was being undervalued.
It is based on ‘Moneyball’, the statistical method that the Major League Baseball Oakland Athletics team used in the 1990s to recruit players.
“There are not many things that happen here that do not happen in other clubs, but here it is not driven by two interns in a basement, it is driven from the top,” adds Ankersen.
Using the system, Midtjylland was able to find and sign Finnish defensive midfielder Tim Sparv, who was the featured player when the Danish team secured their first Super League title in 2015.
Continuous and crafty recruiting has helped them win more league titles in 2017-18 and 2019-20, as well as reaching the last 32 of the Europa League four years ago.
“I was skeptical about this approach when I joined,” Hansen says.
“Can it work, can it make a difference? But now when I look back, they have signed a lot of players who have been sold to bigger clubs for larger amounts.
“It’s an advantage, getting the right players, developing them and getting a great transfer. He’s a role model to be proud of. Alexander Sorloth went to Crystal Palace after half a season here, killed the league and now has gone for a lot of money.
“It is a model that works.”
‘Conversion rates are random’ – How does it work?
We are all familiar with the amount of statistics available in soccer now.
But how does the model work? Ankersen gives a simple example.
“Let’s say you’re looking at two forwards,” he says.
“One in the course of four games has three chances and scores three goals. Another in the same number of games has 10 chances but doesn’t score any goals. Who would you pick?
“The soccer answer is to say that the first player is more effective, we should choose him. We would say that in reality the conversion rates are quite random, so the measure of a good forward is not so much his ability to convert a large proportion of opportunities , the measure should be: “Are you able to consistently get positions where the probability of scoring is high?”
“If so, the goals will come with time. We would choose the second player.”
Long shots and get Klopp’s attention
Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp has long been a fan of FC Midtjylland’s approach and was planning to spend some time with the club following his departure from Borussia Dortmund.
“On my break, I was interested in going there for a while just to see what they do,” says Klopp.
“But I signed for Liverpool so I couldn’t. Even five years ago, it was interesting.”
Klopp certainly kept his interest in the club as two years ago he sought out his serving coach, Thomas Gronnemark.
Since the arrival of Gronnemark, Liverpool have gone from statistically one of the worst in the Premier League to retain possession of throw-ins to one of the best in Europe.
What’s next for Moneyball FC?
Since arriving in Europe, Midtjylland has bled a few noses and gotten some unexpected results.
They beat Southampton in the Europa League play-offs in 2015-16 and beat Manchester United 2-1 in the first leg of their round of 16 tie that same season, although in the second leg they were beaten 5- 1, losing 6-3 overall.
Now they hope their approach can make its mark on their debut season in the Champions League.
