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Ireland, England and France still have a chance to lift the Championship title, as England head to Rome to face Italy before France and Ireland fight in Paris, and this is what each team must do to be the only one. celebrating next Saturday.
Super Saturday passes! #GuinnessSixNations pic.twitter.com/I1bAxTWsSG
– Guinness Six Nations (@SixNationsRugby) October 24, 2020
Ireland
Currently at the top of the table with 14 points after the 50-17 bonus point victory over Italy, Ireland are the only team with its fate completely in its own hands.
Another bonus point victory outside of France in Round 5 will give them an impregnable lead at the top of the pile with 19 points, regardless of England’s result in Italy, and will ensure that Andy Farrell lifts the trophy in his first Championship in charge. .
If Ireland secures a victory without the four-shot bonus point while England achieves a five-point victory in Rome, then both teams would be tied at 18 points and the fate of the title would come down to the point difference.
Ireland is currently +38 to England’s +15, so as long as England’s margin of victory was not 24 points higher than Ireland’s, Farrell’s troops would claim a fourth title in seven years.
If they finish tied on both points AND on the point difference, Ireland will have a significant advantage in the next tiebreaker – attempts scored (14-9).
If England lose or draw against Italy, then a victory of any description or even a draw for Ireland would see them lift the title.
However, if Ireland loses in Paris, their title chances are over.
England
England, who are in second place with 13 points, need to beat Italy, preferably with an extra point, and then keep an eye out for France’s clash with Ireland later that night.
Their simplest path to the title is a bonus point win over Italy alongside Ireland who failed to beat France. That would give England the title UNLESS Les Bleus also scored a five-point victory in Paris and their margin of victory was at least two points higher than England’s.
If England ties Ireland at 18 points at the top of the table (an England win by five points and an Ireland win by four points), then it comes down to the point difference and the Red Rose follows Ireland by 23 in that department, needing a margin of victory over Italy that is 24 points higher than Ireland’s over France.
If both England and France record wins of four or five points to end up tied on points at the top of the table, then it will again come down to the point difference, with England leading +15 to +13.
France
For France to win the 2020 Guinness Six Nations title, they must beat Ireland in Paris AND improve on England’s result against Italy.
Les Bleus are currently tied on points with England, so a bonus point win over Ireland alongside Eddie Jones’ troops losing, tying or beating Italy without a bonus point would earn them the title.
If both France and England score a four-point win or a five-point win, then it would come down to the point difference. With Les Bleus at +13 and England at +15, France would need to get a margin of victory at least two points higher than England’s.
If the teams finish tied for the point difference, then France has the advantage, as the next tiebreaker is the number of attempts scored and Fabien Galthie’s men have scored 13 times against England’s 9.
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