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Senior figures in European governments believe Boris Johnson is waiting for the outcome of the US presidential election before finally deciding whether to risk plunging the UK into a no-deal Brexit, according to a former British ambassador to the EU.
Ivan Rogers, who was the UK’s permanent representative in Brussels from 2013 to 2017, told the Observer that an opinion shared by ministers and officials he has spoken to in recent weeks in various European capitals is that Johnson is biding his time, and is much more likely to choose not to reach a deal if his friend and Brexit supporter , Donald Trump, prevails over the Democrat. challenger, Joe Biden.
Rogers said: “Several high-level sources in capitals have told me that they believe Johnson will wait for the outcome of the presidential elections to be clarified before finally deciding whether to move to ‘no deal’ with the EU, or to conclude that this is too much. risky with Biden heading for the White House, and therefore living with a very suboptimal free trade agreement (for Johnson). “
The former ambassador to the EU, who resigned during Theresa May’s tenure due to disagreements over Brexit strategy, remains in regular contact with high-level government figures in EU capitals. Rogers said that if Trump won, he and others in Europe believed that Johnson would think “history was going his way” with his right-wing ally still in the White House. Therefore, the prime minister is more likely to conclude that he could strike a quick and substantial trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom after Brexit than if Biden emerged as president after the November 3 elections. By contrast, a Biden administration would prioritize rebuilding relations with the EU that have been damaged by Trump.
Rogers joined other former UK diplomats last night in warning that a Democratic administration under Biden would prove hugely problematic for Johnson and the UK government, threatening the so-called special relationship. “I don’t think Biden and his main team are anti-British, but I think neither Johnson nor his main team impress them,” he said.
“They believe that he was one of the first and energetic defenders of Trump, and that Brexiteer thinking, which they believe has damaged the unity of the West, has many parallels with Trumpism. So I really doubt there is much warmth in the personal relationship. And Biden’s simply would not be an administration that sees European integration as a negative.
“The UK’s absence from the EU will clearly make it less influential because it can no longer lead European thinking on the geostrategic issues that will be of great importance to Biden. So [Biden] It will put Berlin and Paris, and indeed Brussels, back at the center of US thought: not without criticism, because the US will continue to have serious problems with the EU’s approaches to economic and security issues. “.
Kim Darroch, a former UK ambassador to Washington, who resigned in 2019 after leaking diplomatic cables criticizing the Trump administration as “inept,” said Biden could even favor a US trade deal. and the EU instead of one with the UK. .
Darroch said: “Whoever wins in November, the foundation of the relationship – defense, security and intelligence collaboration – will remain as strong as ever. But if it’s Biden, there are likely to be some problems. Democrats do not like or support Brexit. They can prioritize trade deals with the Pacific region or the EU over a deal between the UK and the US They will block a trade deal with us if they think we are putting the Good Friday deal at risk. And they remember and resent Johnson’s comments in 2016 that ‘the partly Kenyan president’ has’ an ancient antipathy for the British empire ‘, not to mention that Johnson told US diplomats that Trump was’ making America great. again’ “.
Last week, International Trade Secretary Liz Truss insisted that an agreement could still be reached with the EU, although significant disagreements persist before the end of the Brexit transition period on December 31. The main problem areas include fishing rights, post-Brexit competition rules, and how any deal would be enforced.
Jonathan Powell, who served as a diplomat in Washington in the 1990s before becoming Tony Blair’s chief of staff and taking control of the negotiations that led to the Good Friday deal, said Biden believed Johnson had compromised the Irish peace process. He said: “Biden is very proud of his Irish background. It has always been active in Northern Ireland since before I was in Washington. He is very interested in the Northern Ireland peace process and sees it as an outrage that Johnson, with his arrogant attitude, has threatened peace in Northern Ireland for so few reasons. So that’s going to be chalked up. “
In Washington there are many foreign policy advisers around Biden who worked in the Obama administration and have not forgiven Johnson for his “partly Kenyan” comments. The field sees Johnson as part of the same populist phenomenon that brought Trump to power. And from the Democrats’ point of view, the UK outside the EU will make it less important as a partner on the world stage.
“On all these giant issues – technology and disinformation and China and trade, the EU’s position on those issues is far more important than the UK’s position,” said Ben Rhodes, Obama’s foreign policy adviser. “For these high-value items, I think Brussels, Berlin and Paris are much more in the middle of it all than London.”
Officials at the Foreign Office and Downing Street downplay the prospect of difficulties in the “special relationship” if Biden wins. They note that the UK will have the opportunity to take the lead on the world stage and establish relations with a new US administration. They cite the fact that the UK will chair the UN security council from February and the US G7 rotating chairmanship, as well as hosting the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP 26) on change. climate in Glasgow in November 2021.
“Climate is really important,” said a British official. “That will really help because he has seen a lot of comments from Biden about how important it is to him, and since we are leading the COP, it will be something where they will instantly recognize our value and our importance.”
A Downing Street spokesman said: “The election of the United States is an internal matter of the United States. We welcome the intensive talks taking place with the EU in London over the weekend, where for the first time we will negotiate on legal texts and in all areas at the same time.
“We have been clear in our ambition for what we want to achieve, we want to reach an FTA that respects us as a sovereign nation and we want to achieve it as soon as possible.”
