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Falling rates of COVID-19 among students could be masking an underlying epidemic, Sky News investigation revealed.
the Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham said this week that Level 3 restrictions they were unnecessary because cases in the city were falling.
Our analysis suggests that this is true when looking at city-wide data. But in fact, the downward trend appears to be due to a sharp drop in cases in areas with higher student density.
In other parts of the city, which likely have a higher proportion of older people at risk for more serious illnesses, cases continue to rise.
That will be a serious concern for hospitals that are increasingly burdened by the combination of COVID-19 and other winter diseases.
We looked at tiny city grids called Middle Layer Overproduction Areas (MSOAs), each of which is home to a few thousand people. It is as detailed as possible when studying the epidemic.
Across the city, the cases began to increase in early September. When the students arrived in the middle of the month, there was an explosion of cases in the MSOAs that contained university residences.
But the cases have decreased almost as fast as they increased, almost certainly because thousands of students were forced to isolate themselves and the virus was burned.
Meanwhile, other areas of the city have seen slow and steady increases in cases.
So far there are no indications that measures such as the rule of six, which dates from September 14, have taken effect.
The pattern is reflected in Sheffield, with a strong increase and decrease of infections in MSOA with residences in them. But once again, cases continue to rise steadily in other parts of the city.
In Nottingham Y Liverpool, rates in college areas also peaked high when students returned, and are now falling. There are signs that infection rates are declining in non-student areas as well, albeit much more slowly.
Our findings underscore how important it is to look not only at the number of headline cases across the city, but also who is getting infected. Otherwise, local locks could be imposed or lifted too early.
Manchester and Liverpool are already under strict Level 3 controls, Sheffield will be under strict measures from Saturday, and talks between the government and local leaders continue on Nottingham also entering the highest level of controls.
