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Allowing an “uncontrolled epidemic” in the young, while subjecting those over 60 to strict coronavirus restrictions, would have “dire consequences for the NHS,” the government’s scientific advisers warned.
Recently released documents show that the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) said such a strategy was “highly likely to create a huge burden of COVID-19 hospitalizations.”
It would also cause “a large number of COVID-19 deaths and the outcome of non-COVID-19 deaths in all age groups, “the experts said.
The comments were included in a note drafted for ministers on October 15 that was published by the government on Friday.
SAGE says allowing young people to build immunity while protecting the elderly and vulnerable would be a big mistake
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In the document, SAGE considered a strategy to implement more restrictions on older people, or those identified as vulnerable, without trying to restrict coronavirus transmission in younger age groups.
They concluded that such a strategy “would not be feasible” because it would not be possible to prevent the virus from spreading from younger people to older people.
The experts said that a “very large proportion of the population would need to withdraw from daily life for many months, which would have a profound negative effect on them.”
“A runaway epidemic in the younger age groups would have dire consequences for the NHS, as well as having unknown long-term effects on those infected,” SAGE said.
It is also not known whether those who survive COVID-19 infection have long-term immunity, SAGE added.
“Even if high levels of immunity could be achieved in the younger age group, it is almost certain that a new epidemic wave in the elderly would occur once segmentation ended,” he said.
SAGE added: “Furthermore, although the profile of the long-term consequences of contracting COVID-19 is unclear, there is emerging evidence that ‘prolonged COVID’ is a problem for some people who do not require hospitalization.”
Experts warned that “no country has managed to contain its epidemic in lower-risk age groups.”
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They also said that “despite measures to protect the vulnerable in spring, COVID-19 was involved in the deaths of 15,646 people in nursing home residents as of October 2.”
Professor James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute at the University of Oxford, said he supported SAGE’s analysis and “strongly” urged the government not to pursue a segmentation strategy.
“Millions of people, including key workers, would have to isolate themselves, the consequences for them and the rest of us would be severe,” he said.
“Since multigenerational households would have to be isolated, this would place a disproportionate burden on the non-white population.
“As the document says, there is no evidence of herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2.”
