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Donald Trump was first elected as president of the United States four years ago and is now fighting to win a second term against his rival Joe Biden. Americans will go to the polls on Tuesday, November 3, to elect their next leader. Trump triumphed in the 2016 election despite losing the popular vote, so many experts say that it is still too early to predict the outcome of the next election. But Express.co.uk has exclusive data revealing exactly what the bookies think will happen on Election Day, with analysis of every key state in this US election campaign.
According to the latest polls conducted in October on the upcoming US elections, Biden has more than 50 percent chance of winning the next election.
On average, Biden is ahead at about 52.5 percent, according to survey aggregator FiveThirtyEight. By comparison, Trump is 41.8 percent behind.
The latest poll, which was published by USC Dornsife and conducted Oct.5-18 among 5,557 adults, showed Biden leading by 54 percent compared to Trump’s 42 percent, giving Biden a lead of 12 points.
Republicans have won the state of the United States in every presidential election since 1952 except 1996. Currently, the latest poll averages indicate that Biden has a 49 percent advantage, compared to Trump’s 45.5 percent.
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Donald Trump vs Joe Biden odds: swingometer reveals who the public thinks will win the us election (Image: GETTY – BETFAIR)
Donald Trump vs Joe Biden odds: there are 14 states that could be KEY to this election (Image: GETTY)
Bookmakers Betfair launched a swing meter tool last month as the presidential race intensified.
At the time of launch, a Betfair spokesperson said: “There is already great interest in who will be the next president of the United States on the Betfair Exchange, with over £ 70 million wagered on the betting market.
“Joe Biden is the current favorite in the pairs, yet almost 60% of the money has been wagered on Donald Trump, who briefly became the favorite yesterday for the first time in three months, and in the last 24 hours his odds have gone up to 21/20 “.
He added: “Already this year we have seen some huge changes in the betting market, in February Joe Biden had a 100/1 (only 1 percent chance) of becoming the next president of the US, but to As the months went by, the odds turned in his favor, in August he had a 60 percent chance of winning, and since then his chances have diminished and he’s too tight to pay.
And the sportsbook has now revealed exclusive data to Express.co.uk about how divisive this vote really is.
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden odds: On average, Biden is ahead by about 52.5 percent (Image: GETTY)
Donald Trump vs Joe Biden odds – Almost 60% of the money has been bet on Donald Trump (Image: GETTY)
With just two weeks to go, Trump is more than twice as likely to win as he was at this stage in 2016 when he had a 11/2 (15%) chance of beating Hillary Clinton (2/11, 85%). ) 14 days before the vote.
Trump’s odds narrowed this week, and while Biden still has 1.68 to win, Trump now has a 40 percent chance of winning a second term. This compares with 31 percent a week ago.
Biden has a 60 percent chance of winning the White House on November 3, as of this writing.
You can view the interactive swingometer below, which reveals the latest data, in real time, on how the public thinks voting will unfold.
And as time is running out in the US presidential race, Betfair has made its prediction about what will happen in Washington on Election Day.
Betfair spokesperson Darren Hughes told Express.co.uk: “The race for the White House is on and with odds of 8/13 (62% implied probability). Joe Biden is the clear leader heading into the final corner with two weeks left for Vamos.
“Trump has gotten closer and closer this past week, seeing his odds move from 9/4 (31% chance) to 6/4 (40% chance) since last Monday, yet it is Biden who is strong. favorite to win the election. .
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He continued: “Given his odds were as high as 99/1 in March, when it seemed unlikely that he would even win the primaries, Biden has received consistent support and has seen his odds drastically reduced. Other than a brief stint in August. After the conventions of both parties, Biden has remained the clear favorite of the current Trump.
“Based on the odds on the Betfair Exchange, there are 11 clearly changing states, determined by changes in the odds since the beginning of 2020. Swinging states are states that have historically oscillated between Democratic and Republican voters, with no discernible pattern. Unlike states like Texas and New York, which are traditional Republican and Democratic states, swing states are often unpredictable and are therefore often considered the most important states in an election.
“Of them, Florida is the closest in betting. After winning it in 2016, the Sunshine State is a very important battleground for Trump to triumph on November 3. Republicans have been as short as 11/10, in May, and as big as 6/4, in September, to win there. But it appears that both Trump and Biden are now side by side with the odds fluctuating on either side of the pairs, leaving only a coin toss on who will take it in 2020. “
Early voting for the US elections began today in the battlefield state of Florida, which has been a reliable benchmark in recent elections.
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden odds: Trump now has a 40 percent chance of winning a second term (Image: GETTY)
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden odds: Joe Biden is the clear favorite heading into the final turn (Image: GETTY)
The US state has a diverse population, but tends to be conservative with a high proportion of older voters. In 2004 and 2016, Republicans won the seat, while Democrats won it in 2008 and 2012.
In the crucial state of transition, parties cannot be separated by Betfair, with each candidate 20/21 (51%) to win where Trump won in 2016 by just 1% of the vote and where 13 of the last 14 presidents of USA reach the top.
Trump and Biden are currently preparing for their final presidential debate to take place on Thursday.
With only 15 days to go until Election Day, Trump is spending time on the election campaign.
On Monday, Trump headed to Arizona, where he won by 3 percent in the last election.
Republicans have won the state of the United States in every presidential election since 1952 except 1996.
Today, the Republican candidate heads to Pennsylvania, where Betfair has odds of a Republican win at 9/4, with Democrats at 2/5. The bookmaker revealed that Democrats briefly drifted to 4/6 in August, but have been consistent since: “They should go blue.”
Wednesday night will see the president in Gastonia, North Carolina, a key target for Trump, where Betfair has the Republican Party at 6/5 and the Democrats at 4/5.
Donald Trump vs Joe Biden odds: the key dates in the lead up to November 3 (Image: GETTY)
Odds suggest that the rivals were each even all summer long, occasionally switching places, both being favorites at different times. “In August, the Democrats were on August 11, but in mid-September they were down to May 4,” Betfair added. “I spent 4/5 overnight in early October and haven’t moved since.”
And on Thursday, Biden and Trump will face off in the next televised debate, to be held in Nashville, Tennessee, a solid red seat with the Republican Party with staggering 1/25 odds.
Darren Hughes of Betfair added: “Another state that Trump has been targeting in recent weeks is Nevada. Despite turning blue in the past three elections, Trump has been looking to use the decline in tourism to build economic support in the Silver State.
“The state looked like a banker to Biden with Democrats at 1/5 odds in July and 1/4 just last week, but Republican support reaching 5/2 odds has made Democrats’ odds worse to 2/5.
“North Carolina is also being closely contested on the East Coast. Traditionally a Republican and with 15 electoral college votes at stake, Biden has turned the tables and is currently beating the stakes with Democrats as the 4/5 favorites. North Carolina is simply a state that Trump cannot afford to lose.
“Based on current state betting odds, we can estimate that Joe Biden will walk away with the keys to the White House on November 3 with about 300 seats, more than the 270 he needs to win.
“Trump could find victories in Florida and North Carolina, two of his key re-election targets, but even winning here would not be enough to close the gap, with Biden sweeping the traditionally Democratic coastal states.”
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