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After days of rumors and leaks, Welsh Prime Minister Mark Drakeford has revealed details of what a “firewall” lock would look like in Wales.
At the Welsh Government press conference on Friday in Cathays Park, Drakeford explained why he was considering the move, what it entailed and what he hoped it would achieve.
It’s one of two options it said the Welsh government was considering, along with tightening current restrictions on local closures.
Ministers hope that the fire lockdown will now be sufficient, with new national restrictions, to allow Wales to reach Christmas. However, they did not rule out further action later in the winter.
It is expected that if the ministers decide to go ahead, the fire lockdown will be announced on Monday, October 19 next week and will go into effect on Friday, October 23.
Here we have included everything that came up at the press conference and since then on what a fire lockdown would look like in Wales.
A decision is being made this weekend
The ministers are expected to meet with key stakeholders, including council leaders, over the weekend to make a final decision on whether to go ahead with the breaker lockout.
Andrew Morgan, the board leader for Rhondda Cynon Taf, has said he is lobbying the Welsh government for more financial support for the businesses and individuals that will be affected by the shutdown.
If ministers follow through with the shutdown, the rest of us are expected to find out at the Welsh Government press conference Monday in Cathays Park at 12.15pm
The other option is stricter local locks
Speaking at Friday’s briefing, Drakeford said that a nationwide lockdown across Wales was not the only option ministers were considering.
In England, the UK government has chosen to introduce stricter restrictions, which they call Level 3, in areas such as Liverpool and Lancashire, where the highest rates of infections are being observed.
And Drakeford indicated that Wales also had that option, which has involved a total closure of hospitality.
“We could further strengthen the local blockade measures,” he said.
“You will recall that in August when we published our local lockdown plan, we had a menu of options that we could take and we haven’t exhausted that menu in any way, so we could say that one way to do that is by taking these local lockdown measures more. .
“We could decide to have a set of national regulations that would not last two weeks, but it would be a new set of rules that would take us beyond that and into the future.
“A circuit breaker is not the only option we have, it is the option recommended by SAGE and our own Technical Advisory Cell.”
No decision has yet been made on whether the schools will remain open
They are still being discussed whether schools would shut down in a “firewall” lockdown.
Drakeford’s comments at the press conference indicate that he would like to keep the schools open, but may not be able to “fully do that.”
If some schools stay open, it is like elementary schools, since younger children are statistically less likely to become infected or transmit the virus.
“We have said for many, many weeks that keeping schools open is a priority for us as the Government of Wales,” he said.
“During the discussion we had yesterday with both our scientific advisers and our main medical advisers, when the cabinet met, when I spoke with the leader of the local authorities, when I spoke with the education unions, of course the schools were a very common topic of conversation.
“We will do our best to keep the schools open, if we will be able to do that fully, it is still a matter of the details of the ongoing conversation, but as a priority, I reaffirm it for everyone today.”
Nonessential deals are likely to close
Drakeford did not elaborate on which businesses will have to close.
But their comments clearly indicated that the hospitality sector and nonessential retail are likely among those likely to close. Gyms and leisure centers may also find themselves told to close.
He said the Welsh government’s plan would cause people to be confined to their homes and shut down businesses for two to three weeks to give the virus a “short and sharp impact.”
Drakeford said: “We will all have to act together to reduce coronavirus levels and keep them low through the winter.”
“We are looking very carefully at the introduction of a limited time ‘firewall’, also known as a circuit breaker of the type recommended by SAGE, the UK scientific advisory group, and our own advisers here in Wales.
“This would be a short, sharp shock to the virus, which could turn back the clock, slow its spread and buy us more time and vital capacity on the NHS.”
“A ‘firewall’ would also mean a short, sharp shock to all of our lives.”
People would have to “stay home”
Drakeford gave some hope later in his press conference that people could still go to the parks, suggesting that there were many things parents could do with their children in their local area during the middle of the term.
But he gave a very clear warning that the overriding expectation was for people to stay home, as they did in the first UK-wide lockdown, during the fire lockdown.
He said, “We would all have to stay home to save lives one more time. But this time it would be for weeks, not months.”
The restrictions can last two to three weeks.
We do not yet know if the restrictions would be introduced for two or three weeks.
If the measures go into effect next Friday, October 23, the first full week of the switch closing would coincide with the school semester.
What we don’t know yet is whether the restrictions will continue for a week or two after that. Drakeford indicated that this decision had consequences.
A blockade longer than three weeks is likely to be milder; a shorter one would imply the strictest restrictions.
He said: “We are considering a two or three week ‘firewall.’ The shorter the period, the more accurate the measurements will have to be.
“A successful firewall would reset the virus to a lower level.”
Even after the fire breaks, there will be a new set of restrictions across Wales.
If ministers are successful in stopping the spread of the coronavirus with blocking “firewalls”, they don’t want the nation’s hard work to come undone quickly afterward.
Drakeford said the rules would change after the shutdown to ensure Wale is not in a similar position in a few months just as Christmas approaches.
He said: “Together with a new set of national rules for all of Wales after the blackout period, we would have slowed down the virus enough to make it to Christmas.”
We could see another fire lockdown in 2021
Health Minister Vaughan Gething has said that ministers believe that blocking firewalls and the new rules will be enough to ensure that a second measure like this is not needed this year.
However, it left open the prospect that it might be necessary again in 2021 if the virus begins to spread again.
“If we do this, we would rather not have to do it again before the end of the year,” Gething said.
“A consistent set of national rules will be really important, so that people can look forward to the end of the year and recognize who they can spend their holiday period with.”
On the same subject, at the press conference, Mr Drakeford said: “I cannot offer a guarantee … that no further action would be necessary later in the winter,” he added.
Action is needed as hospitals face increasing pressure
The Prime Minister said that 2,500 people are now infected with coronavirus every day in Wales, this includes people who are not being tested and not diagnosed.
He said the rate of Covid-19 infections was now more than 100 cases per 100,000 people with an R number of 1.4, which means it was increasing exponentially.
He said this was translating into significant pressure on hospitals.
He said: “The R number for Wales is 1.4. These figures mean that about 2,500 people are infected every day. And the increase in that number is faster every week.
“At the current rate of growth, we will exceed the March peak at the end of this month …
“We are already seeing the increase in cases in the community leading to an increase in people admitted to the hospital.
“Last week there were 500 people in the hospital; at the beginning of this week there were 700. Yesterday there were 825.”
He said the situation was “very dire” and “unless we can get the coronavirus back under control, there is a real risk that the NHS will be overwhelmed … and if that happens, more people will die as a result.”
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Things would be even worse if it weren’t for the current lockdown measures
Sir Patrick Vallance echoed this theme at the UK government press conference on Friday afternoon.
The R number in Wales and throughout the UK is around 1.4. This means that the pandemic is growing rapidly, but not as fast as in March, before the total lockdown was established.
And Drakeford said his actions in Wales had meant that the nation was in “a better place” than any other part of the UK.
“Now, I want to make it clear that these figures would have been much higher if we had not acted quickly and quickly to implement local and national measures.
“Thanks to everything he has done, we are still in a better place in Wales than anywhere else in the UK.”
What support will there be for companies?
It’s not just the council leaders pushing for support for businesses and individuals.
Lobbyists, including the Welsh Independent Restaurant Collective, have expressed concern that without adequate support it would be the “death sentence” of the industry, in the words of Brains CEO Alastair Darby.
At the press conference, Drakeford said ministers were drawing up plans for a new business support package before making a final decision on any circuit breakers.
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