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Brexit watchers have long been waiting for the moment when trade talks with the EU finally erupt in a full-scale row.
Students of international negotiations know that a theatrical raid is often the prelude to a deal.
Yesterday the time finally seemed to come. Boris Johnson recorded a statement to the camera telling the UK to prepare to leave the Brexit transition without a trade deal later this year.
Pictured: Boris Johnson gives a statement on the post-Brexit trade talks on Friday, October 16. Johnson told Britain to prepare to leave the Brexit transition without a trade deal later this year.
With just ten weeks to go, the prime minister said, it was clear that the EU was unwilling to grant the kind of free trade agreement it has struck with Canada and other partners.
“They want the continued ability to control our legislative freedom, our fisheries, in a way that is obviously unacceptable to an independent country,” he said.
Without a “fundamental change of approach” from the EU, there was no point in continuing the negotiations.
An hour later, the prime minister’s official spokesman went further and said the trade talks were “over.” He said the EU’s top Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier should cancel a planned trip to London next week unless he plans to take a new approach.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen responded to Johnson’s comments saying that talks will continue in London next week.
No. 10 had been considering yesterday’s showdown long before this week’s Brussels summit. In the end, the EU made it easy for him. EU leaders dropped the commitment to “intensify” talks of the summit conclusions and said the UK should “take the necessary steps to make an agreement possible.”
French President Emmanuel Macron said there were no “ circumstances ” in which he would engage in fishing despite the fact that, as he admitted yesterday, a No Deal result would leave French trawlers completely in the cold.
With such a stance, the prime minister felt emboldened to go further than he could have done by intensifying the rhetoric.
So is it all theater? Only up to a point.
The European Union has consistently misinterpreted the mood at No. 10, where Brexit is seen as a long-term project that cannot be deflected by demands for short-term deals.
Some European Union leaders still seem to think they are dealing with a tougher version of Theresa May’s government, which never seriously contemplated leaving without a deal.
But the new administration in Downing Street is very different. Those at the heart of government will not accept restrictions on the UK’s long-term ability to diverge from EU rules. They believe that the UK’s ability to forge its own path is the goal of Brexit.
Johnson said the EU’s top Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier (pictured) should cancel a planned trip to London next week unless he plans to take a new approach.
The Prime Minister wants a deal, and he knows that leaving without one would be seen as a failure.
Michael Gove, who is in charge of border preparations, is deeply concerned about the short-term disruption of leaving without a trade deal, which officials believe would disrupt vital supply chains and cause chaos in Kent.
And there are fears at the top of the government that the collapse of the talks will inevitably be bitter and spark a damaging trade war that could last for years.
So a deal is still possible, and probably the most likely outcome.
But time is very short. And both Brussels and the financial markets are underestimating the real possibility that when the Prime Minister says he is ready to accept the No Deal, he will just mean it.
Boris calls the Brexit talks: PM says we should prepare for No Deal – because the EU won’t budge
By Jason Groves in London and James Franey in Brussels for the Daily Mail
Britain should prepare for a no-deal Brexit, Boris Johnson warned yesterday when he canceled talks on a trade deal.
The prime minister said that the “unacceptable” demands from the EU mean there is no point in continuing the discussions.
And, with just ten weeks to go for the Brexit transition, he said it was time for businesses and individuals to start preparing for life without a trade deal, which will mean tariffs and possible border chaos in the short term. .
Downing Street went further, and Johnson’s official spokesman said the trade talks were “over.”
Number 10 told EU Brexit chief negotiator Michel Barnier last night not to bother traveling to London for talks next week, just hours after the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said the efforts would “intensify.”
Gove: the Navy will help protect our fishermen
The Royal Navy will protect British waters in the days after the Brexit transition period, Michael Gove warned.
Speaking aboard HMS Westminster in Portsmouth, he said the sailors will assist in any future conflict over fishing waters and help ensure that “no one is abusing their rights.” The chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster also said the army was on standby “ready to help.”
Gove’s comments on Thursday came amid a dispute with the EU over access to UK fishing waters, with President Emmanuel Macron asserting that French fishermen will not be “ slaughtered ” to reach a deal. .
Gove said: ‘There has always been a role the Navy plays in protecting fisheries and that role will continue. In the days following the transition period, the Royal Navy along with the Coast Guard, the Department of Transportation and others will continue to assist with the protection of the fishery. ‘
This map shows the extent of the UK Exclusive Economic Zone, the waters that Britain will regain control after Brexit. Currently, the EEZ of each EU member state is merged into one large area that is accessible to fishermen from all over Europe.
A spokesman said it “doesn’t make sense” for the discussions to continue next week unless the EU changes course, although Johnson’s chief negotiator Lord Frost will speak with Barnier by phone.
Johnson left the door open for talks to resume in the next few days. But he said this would require a “fundamental change of approach” from Brussels.
He said Britain should embrace the prospect of no trade deal “with great heart and complete confidence.”
He added: “We will prosper enormously as an independent free trade nation, controlling our own borders, our fisheries and establishing our own laws.”
Former Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab suggested that there was still “an agreement to be made.”
Raab said the differences between the two sides were now “very narrow”, with “only two issues at stake”: fishing rights and state aid rules.
Johnson’s comments came after an EU summit in which leaders stopped committing to “intensifying” the talks and said the UK should “take the necessary steps to make a deal possible.”
His spokesman said: ‘The trade talks are over. The EU has effectively ended them by saying that they do not want to change their negotiating position.
Last night there were signs of commitment from some EU leaders. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Brussels had to accept the UK’s right to diverge from EU rules in the future, adding: “If we want to reach an agreement, both sides must make a move towards each other. “.
And French President Emmanuel Macron admitted for the first time that his country’s fishing fleet would be even worse off with No Deal.
However, an EU source close to the negotiations said: “If Mr Johnson wants the EU to completely change its position, it just won’t happen.”
The prospect of No Deal sparked a backlash from business leaders.
Dame Carolyn Fairbairn, CEO of CBI, said: “After four years of negotiations and so many obstacles crossed, this is not the time to give up.”
And Mike Hawes, executive director of the Society of Automobile Manufacturers and Traders, said leaving the EU without a deal would have a “devastating” impact on the auto industry, affecting the economy and jobs in all regions of the Kingdom. United.
Ian Wright, executive director of the Food and Beverage Federation, said Johnson’s words suggested “we are heading into very dangerous territory,” and No Deal likely means higher food prices.
Allie Renison of the Institute of Directors warned that preparing for No Deal in the midst of a pandemic would be “a Herculean task for many companies.”
