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The two-week-long ‘circuit breakers’ would see severe restrictions temporarily introduced across the country to suppress the virus, before they are removed for a time and then reintroduced if necessary.
The measures could include bans on social media between homes, the closure of entertainment and entertainment venues such as bars and restaurants, or restricting their opening hours.
But they are unlikely to cause school and office closures just yet.
This form of lockdown was first proposed by Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, which he implemented in April.
It closed all workplaces, except those considered essential, and put restrictions on public spaces and restaurants.
The idea is seen in England as the “last line of defense,” according to Health Secretary Matt Hancock last week, and “local action” is preferred.
But north of the border in Scotland, a “circuit breaker” has been considered a temporary solution.
Since October 9, pubs and bars in the central belt have been banned from serving alcohol indoors for 16 days and had to close before 6pm.
In large areas north of the border, hospitality venues are told to close completely.
However, there is debate about the impact such a move has, with some questioning what happens as soon as the ‘circuit breaker’ lockout ends.
A circuit breaker was at the top of a short list of coronavirus interventions recommended to the government by expert advisers last month.
A Sage document, dated September 21 and released just hours after the prime minister announced yesterday his three-tier system of alert levels for England, said a package of interventions will be needed to reverse the exponential increase in cases. .
First on the list is a circuit breaker, a short blackout period, ‘to bring the incidence back to low levels’, followed by a work-from-home tip for everyone who can.
Attendees at the September 21 meeting, held via Zoom, included the government’s chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, and medical director, Professor Chris Whitty.
The document says both local and national measures are needed, adding: “The measures should not be applied in too specific a geographic area.”
A separate document from Sage, also dated Sept. 21, looking at the effectiveness and harms of non-pharmaceutical interventions, said that a circuit breaker reintroduced for two to three weeks should act to lower the R below one.
During a fifteen-day ‘pause’, two weeks of growth could be traded for two weeks of deterioration in transmission, assuming good adherence to measurements and no further increase in contacts before or after breakdown.
‘If this were as strict and enforced as the restrictions at the end of May, this could delay the epidemic by about 28 days or more.
‘The amount of’ time saved ‘depends largely on how fast the epidemic is growing: the faster the growth or the stricter the measures introduced, the more time will be saved.
‘If regulations and behavior were to return to pre-circuit break levels, there would be a return to exponential growth, but from a significantly lower level than would have been the case without the break.
“The deleterious impact would be maximized if they coincided with school holidays.
“Multiple circuit outages may be necessary to maintain low incidence levels,” the document says.
On Monday night, Sage scientist Professor Calum Semple warned that the new restrictions announced by the prime minister had come too late and that a “circuit breaker” might be needed in a few weeks.
When asked if the level of response announced for London is sufficient for the threat, the Liverpool University academic told the Prime Minister of BBC Radio 4: “I will be difficult and I will say no, I think we are a little late. to react “.
He said there is a three to four week delay before the interventions pay off in hospitals.
“Me and other people who were advocating for tough and strict local interventions where it was needed three or four weeks ago, our fear is that we are now somewhere else,” he said.
And that we may need a much stronger intervention, the so-called circuit breaker, in a matter of weeks.
“The bud is a bit like a super-tanker, you put on the brakes but it takes a long time before you see the effect.”
Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick said today that the government has “cracked down” despite being accused of ignoring its own scientists over a “circuit breaker” lockdown for England.
Jenrick said this had included the introduction of the 6-10 pm curfew rule for pubs and restaurants, but that the government had also taken a “balanced” approach to the situation.
Jenrick told BBC Breakfast: “We listen to that advice like we always do and take action, but these are balanced judgments.
‘We also have to balance that with the effect on people’s economy, work and livelihoods, the education we’ve made a priority, and all the other unintended consequences of taking action, whether it’s on people’s mental health. people, in other illnesses and elective surgery that could be delayed or canceled as a result of that.
“We took a balanced view of what was required at that time and that is the way we will continue to behave.”
Despite the re-introduction of restrictions on liberty, almost two-thirds of the public said they would support a Scottish-style “circuit breaker” lockout.
An exclusive poll for MailOnline last week found strong support for a ‘short and strong clash’ of heavy restrictions across the country in an attempt to break the chains of transmission.
The Redfield & Wilton poll found that 63 per cent would support a temporary offensive that is being rolled out across the UK, including 33 per cent who said they strongly supported it.
By contrast, only 13 percent of 3,000 respondents said they would be against the measure.
