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Government scientific advisers set the “reasonable worst case scenario” of 59,000 coronavirus deaths in the UK during the summer months, recently released documents show.
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) calculated the figure for “direct COVID-19 deaths “in hospitals, residences and the community from May 18 to September 6.
It was included in an article titled “COVID-19 Reasonable worst-case planning scenario “of May 21, which was first released on Friday.
SAGE also said in the document that relaxing lockdown restrictions “could easily lead to an R of about 1.5-1.7.”
According to government data, there were 6,476 deaths within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test between May 18 and September 6.
The number of people who died from the coronavirus mentioned on their death certificate was 9,524 during the same period, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
In its May document, SAGE noted that its calculations were “scenarios, not predictions” and “subject to significant uncertainty.”
“These results should not be interpreted as a forecast of what is most likely to happen, but rather as scenarios to inform planning at that time,” the government said.
“Reasonable worst-case scenarios are considered for planning to ensure that we can respond to a variety of scenarios.”
In a reasonable worst case, SAGE said there could be 130,000 people admitted to the hospital with COVID-19 from May 18 to September 6, and that 19,000 patients would require intensive care treatment during the same period.
It also established a breakdown of COVID-19 deaths in each UK nation in the worst case scenario, with 53,000 in England, 3,500 in Scotland, 1,300 in Wales and 1,400 in Northern Ireland.
SAGE calculated the figures using a scenario in which easing of restrictions from June 1 would lead to an increase in the R number to 1.7 over four weeks.
Under the scenario, the restrictions would be reimposed, lowering the R number to 0.7, before relaxing again with the R number returning to around 1.
In reality, the R number has not been 1.7 since the first blockage was lifted and has only increased substantially above 1 in the last month.
In the May paper, SAGE said its members agreed that “several different combinations of factors as part of relaxation from behavioral and social interventions could easily lead to an R of about 1.5-1.7.”
“This could be any combination of nonessential retail and more returning to work, or a minimal reopening of the school with a large increase in leisure contacts,” he added.
