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The concept of ending the Covid pandemic through herd immunity is “a dangerous fallacy not supported by scientific evidence,” say 80 researchers in a warning letter published by a major medical journal.
International signatories to the open letter in The Lancet say interest in herd immunity stems from “widespread demoralization and declining trust” as a result of restrictions that have been re-imposed in many countries due to increased infections in a second wave.
The suggestion that the way out is to protect the vulnerable and allow the virus to spread among the less vulnerable is wrong, they say. “Uncontrolled transmission in younger people carries a risk of significant morbidity and mortality throughout the population. In addition to the human cost, this would affect the workforce as a whole and overwhelm the ability of health care systems to provide acute and routine care. “
The signatories have expertise in public health, epidemiology, medicine, pediatrics, sociology, virology, infectious diseases, health systems, psychology, psychiatry, health policy, and mathematical modeling. These include a number of scientists who are part of the Independent Sage breakaway group in the UK, such as former Chief Scientist Sir David King, former WHO Director Anthony Costello, virologist Prof. Deenan Pillay, behavioral scientist Prof Susan Michie and the professor of European public health Martin McKee.
There is no evidence that immunity after recovering from Covid-19 lasts, they say, adding that people who are vulnerable would be at risk for an indefinite future and cannot stay safe.
“Prolonged isolation of large sectors of the population is practically impossible and very unethical,” they say, calling for action to suppress virus levels in the population.
“It is essential to act decisively and urgently,” they say. “Effective measures to suppress and control transmission must be widely implemented, and must be supported by financial and social programs that foster community responses and address inequalities that have been amplified by the pandemic.”
These restrictions will be necessary “to reduce transmission and repair ineffective pandemic response systems, in order to avoid future blockages.” If the number of infections can be reduced to a low level, it will be possible to keep the virus suppressed through an “efficient and comprehensive” testing, tracing, isolation and support system, “so that life can return to near normal without the need for Widespread restrictions. Protecting our economies is inextricably linked to controlling Covid-19. We must protect our workforce and avoid long-term uncertainty. “
There are success stories, including Japan, Vietnam and New Zealand, they say.
“The evidence is very clear: controlling the community spread of Covid-19 is the best way to protect our societies and economies until safe and effective vaccines and therapies arrive in the coming months. We cannot afford distractions that undermine an effective response; it is essential that we act urgently based on the evidence ”.
Other signatories to the letter from the UK include epidemiologist Professor David Hunter, cancer researcher Professor Charles Swanton of the Crick Institute, and Professor of Global Health Devi Sridhar. Americans include Global Health Professor Gavin Yamey of Duke University, Professor Rochelle P Walensky of Harvard Medical School, and Dr. Ali Nouri of the Federation of American Scientists. Researchers from Italy, Israel, Malaysia, Spain, Ireland, Germany, France, Australia, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Canada have also signed up.
