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Thousands of deaths from coronavirus could be prevented before Christmas if a two-week lockdown is imposed for the middle of the period, two of the government’s scientific advisers said.
By January, 3,000 to 107,000 deaths could be prevented, according to Graham Medley, who is part of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), and Matt Keeling, a member of the Scientific Group on Pandemic Influenza Models.
They told the Financial Times they will publish a joint document on Wednesday that models the effects of a brief lockdown between October 24 and November 7.
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A report released by SAGE on Monday revealed that scientists had recommended an immediate breaker shutdown three weeks ago to reduce coronavirus cases.
Labor leader Sir keir starmer he later called for a circuit breaker lockout in a televised address, saying it was clear that the government was no longer following the science.
He warned that “another path is needed” as the government’s plan against the coronavirus “is simply not working.”
Cases have risen rapidly across the UK in recent weeks, while Public Health England’s chief medical officer Dr Yvonne Doyle has called the upward trend in coronavirus-related deaths “worrisome”.
The article by Professors Medley and Keeling predicts that a two-week shutdown could avoid 5,000 to 140,000 hospital admissions in January.
The report, which is undergoing peer review, says the short duration could “limit the economic damage” of a shutdown, at a time when industries like the hospitality sector are already struggling.
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A brief shutdown, the professors argue, could give the government time to work on other measures to control the pandemic.
Although the scientists focused their report on the October school semester, “the same logic would apply to the Christmas break … or the spring semester.”
The government has been heavily criticized for failing to impose stricter measures, such as a circuit breaker, and opting to put a three-tier lockdown system in place.
SAGE member Professor Cath Noakes posted a cartoon on Twitter that seemed to poke fun at the leaders’ response to the growing number of cases.
Downing Street defended its decision, saying scientists agree that the economic impact and harm of the restrictions must also be considered.
The prime minister’s spokesman said: “The government receives advice from a wide range of scientific experts and also from economists, but ultimately it is up to the ministers to make decisions.”
