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Boris Johnson is under increasing pressure to impose a brief national lockdown to curb the rise in Covid-19 infections after Keir Starmer called for a “circuit breaker” that two of the government’s scientific advisers say could prevent thousands of deaths. .
Sir Keir, the Labor leader, broke ranks to demand a two- to three-week shutdown to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed, in a major escalation of his criticism of the government.
“There is no time to give the prime minister the benefit of the doubt. The government’s plan is just not working, ”he told a press conference.
Sir Keir’s endorsement of a national blockade is a turnaround for Britain’s main opposition party. He proposed that schools remain open, but that all pubs and restaurants close, with only work and travel essential. “Months and months of virus out of control would do much more damage to the economy,” said the Labor leader.
Several Labor mayors have also advocated for the circuit breaker, including Andy Burnham in Greater Manchester.
A senior government source said: “Keir Starmer is a shameless opportunist playing political games in the midst of a global pandemic.
“He says he wants a national shutdown, but refuses to endorse specific restrictions in the areas that need them most.”
Sir Keir’s comments came ahead of the publication of a paper on Wednesday by two of the UK government’s top scientific advisers. In the document, which has been seen by the FT, Graham Medley, who is on the panel of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, and Matt Keeling, a member of another state advisory council, the Scientific Group on Pandemic Influenza on Modeling (Spi-M ) say thousands of coronavirus deaths could be prevented if a two-week lockdown is imposed.
The model finds that in the best case scenario, if the coronavirus is growing at a very low rate at the time of a circuit breaker, a two-week lockout would save thousands of lives, increasing with the projected level of infection.
The scientists then model a variety of scenarios under which, in the most extreme scenario with dramatically increasing cases and with very few controls, the sudden imposition of a limited lockdown could prevent 107,000 deaths by January.
However, Professor Keeling explained that this model did not involve any government intervention. “Obviously, we would never let things go that far,” he said.
The idea for a circuit breaker was first proposed by the government’s Sage panel last month, but Johnson opted for more limited measures, such as the 10 p.m. lockdown to prevent economic damage.
While many Conservative MPs think the current restrictions are too harsh, former health secretary Jeremy Hunt said more steps might be needed to “get this under control.”
The article by Prof. Medley and Prof. Keeling is undergoing peer review and models the effects of two weeks of strict social interventions from October 24 to November 7. This type of “preventive break” could be used again at Christmas or in the spring semester. as a measure to buy time to implement other measures such as contact tracing, they argued.
Patrons at the William Gladstone pub in Liverpool follow Boris Johnson’s announcement of new local restrictions on Monday © Paul Ellis / AFP / Getty
On Monday, the prime minister established a new three-tiered system for local lockdowns, with Liverpool the first region to receive the brunt of the new stricter measures, as it is the area in England with the highest number of infections.
Liverpool has been struggling to cope with an increase in coronavirus cases, with 95 percent of intensive care beds in the city’s major hospitals filled on Tuesday, according to people with knowledge of the situation. The surge in Liverpool has forced delays in some non-urgent treatments.
When asked if it was considering a fifteen-day nationwide lockdown, Downing Street said it was keeping the “measures” under review. “Where we have needed to go further, we have been prepared to do so,” said a spokesman.
* This story has been updated to clarify the model range in the scientific article
