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The Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole area is a coronavirus ‘hot spot’ and is expected to remain so for the next several weeks, according to an interactive map.
The tool, created by experts from Imperial College London, shows that the BCP Council area became a ‘hotspot’ on September 27.
According to projections, the BCP Council area has a 100% chance of being an ‘access point’ until October 25.
The Imperial College London team defines an “access point” as a local authority where there are more than 50 cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 inhabitants per week.
Imperial College London said: “For the next few weeks, we provide probabilities based on our model, which assumes a situation where there is no change in interventions (eg, local closures). To define weeks we use sample dates , that is, the day the tests are taken. ”
Data on daily reported cases and weekly reported deaths are used in conjunction with a “mathematical model” to report the likelihood of a local authority becoming a “hotspot” in the following week.
Local authorities with a 75 to 100 percent chance of being “hot spot” areas appear in red on a UK map.
By October 25, many parts of the UK are shown as “hot spot” areas.
Meanwhile, the probability that the R rate will increase above one in the BCP Council area is given as 100 percent for the week ending October 10.
The R rate indicates the number of people to whom each infected person will transmit the virus. An R number greater than one indicates that the outbreak is not under control and cases will continue to increase.
By comparison, Dorset has a very low chance of becoming a ‘hotspot’ until around October 12. The probability then increases to 62 percent through October 25.
The New Forest will see an increasing probability of registering more than 50 cases per 100,000 people in the coming weeks, increasing from 36% to 55%.
Dorset has a 99 percent chance of posting an R rate greater than one for the week ending October 10 with a 94 percent chance in the woods.
Speaking last month, lead researcher Professor Axel Gandy, from the Department of Mathematics at Imperial College London, said: “Unfortunately, COVID-19 is still with us, but we hope it will be a useful tool for local and national governments. trying to control access points. ”
As reported on the Bournemouth Echo website on Friday, Public Health Dorset said the increase in the number of confirmed cases across the county is “concerning.”
Between September 28 and October 4, the BCP Council area registered 265 cases and the Dorset Council area registered 93 cases. These figures increased from 78 and 29, respectively, from the previous week.
Public Health Dorset has urged residents to be “vigilant.”
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