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Brussels does not believe that Boris Johnson will abandon Brexit talks next week despite repeated threats from London, and negotiations will continue well into the month.
The prime minister has publicly suggested that an EU summit next Thursday is his deadline for a deal. He said in September that without an agreement it would be time to “accept and move on.”
UK chief negotiator David Frost reiterated the comments during a parliamentary hearing this week, but a senior EU diplomat said this was not Brussels’ understanding after private discussions.
“I do not detect any disposition by the British side to suspend the negotiations,” said the source. “This is going to continue. It is not a deadline. “
Top EU negotiator Michel Barnier was in talks with Frost on Friday morning, with just a few days of negotiations before the 27 EU heads of state and government hold their summit to discuss next steps.
Repeated public threats from Downing Street reflect the hope that the summit will be a stepping stone into a period of so-called ‘tunnel negotiations’ in which the two teams negotiate without consulting outside political actors or informing the media about possible compromises.
The diplomatic source said that the next few days will report how the leaders will react, but denied suggestions that the two sides are getting closer to an agreement on the control of domestic subsidies. This, along with the fisheries and surveillance mechanics of the final deal, are the most contentious topics.
“You know, we had an interview with Michel Barnier about the situation on Wednesday and I don’t remember him saying something like that,” the diplomat said. “If this were the case it would be good news and as you know we need to get a little more from the UK side, or Michel Barnier needs it, before it is ready to use, as he puts it, the ‘submarine’ or the tunnel’.”
In an analysis that the EU side does not share, Frost had suggested this week that progress was being made on state aid and that fishing was the biggest obstacle to a deal that could be in place at the end of the transition period.
Downing Street is pushing for a radical change in the proportion of catches in British waters, but the EU has so far insisted that it will accept nothing less than the status quo.
Eight member states (France, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, Ireland, Denmark, Germany and Sweden) have a particular interest and have not yet offered Barnier any flexibility.
Barnier has said privately that the key will be how French President Emmanuel Macron reacts in the coming weeks to Downing Street’s increasingly outspoken rhetoric about the need for the EU to back down or risk a ruin a deal.
“What I see now is that the UK is, you know, trying to say ‘OK, you know this is really valuable.’ But they see it as a lever to gain access to the European Union market, I think that is the game we are seeing right now, ”said a high-ranking diplomat. “For France, this is something they look at, and maybe even the number one issue in the negotiations of the EU-UK negotiations. [for France]”.
Barnier has informed all 27 member states that Brexit will necessarily mean reduced catches in British waters in an attempt to persuade the bloc to present a more realistic negotiating position.
The loss of revenue currently made by the EU fishing fleet in British waters would be relatively small compared to the broader trade deal, but runs the risk of creating an internal divide as those who lose seek to be compensated with catches. additional in other parts of European waters.
“It is an issue that worries eight member states, and for at least five of them it is a fairly important political issue,” said a senior diplomat. “I mean, even if we are talking about an annual volume of more than 650 million euros [£590m]In fact it is not so much, but politically it is. “
