Covid Cases Increase Rapidly As Next Steps Are Planned

Coronavirus cases in England have “increased rapidly”, the data shows, as ministers grapple with what to do next.

Estimates suggest that between one in 170 and one in 240 people you meet on the street have the virus.

Both current cases, and the rate at which they are increasing, are much higher in the north of England than the national average.

Scientific advisers warn that hospital admissions are “very close” to early March levels.

A flood of data shows a clear pattern of increasing cases:

• The R number, the average number of people to whom each infected person transmits the virus, is now estimated at between 1.2 and 1.5. Any value greater than 1.0 means that the cases are increasing.
• The Covid Symptom Study app, which uses data from 4 million people and 12,000 swab tests, estimates that 21,903 people develop Covid symptoms every day across the UK. That’s 1,000 a day more than a week ago.
• The Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates that 224,000 people in households in England had the virus, as of October 1. That’s roughly double the figure reported for each of the past two weeks, and suggests that hopes of a “leveling off” last week may have been a false dawn.
• The ONS estimates that one in 500 people is infected in Wales and Northern Ireland.

Meanwhile, the largest coronavirus study, conducted by Imperial College London, has also reported its analysis of 175,000 people, with the latest samples taken on Monday.

Across England, he says cases continue to rise, but not as aggressively as in early September.

But this masks a bleak regional picture, with cases doubling in the North West, Yorkshire and the West Midlands compared to all of England.

It also shows that there has been an eight-fold increase in cases in people 65 and older as the surge in the epidemic that began in the younger age groups bleeds into the rest of the population.

Professor Steven Riley, from Imperial, said: “I think it is clear that the prevalence continues to increase” and that if new, stricter measures are needed in the north of England, they should be implemented “sooner rather than later”.

The increase in cases and people admitted to hospitals is causing growing political concern. The new rules are expected to be announced Monday and go into effect Wednesday.

The precise details are still being debated, but measures including closing bars and restaurants, or banning overnight stays, are on the table.

The data presented to MPs by England’s chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, appears to put the hospitality industry in the firing line, as parts of society such as schools and universities are kept open.

He says pubs, restaurants and the hospitality industry as a whole are an important area where people who test positive for the virus have been mixing.

Gillian Keegan, minister for skills and learning, said the government had to act to stop the increase in cases.

“This is serious, it is getting out of control and we have to do something to get it back under control,” he said.

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) says that it is “almost certain that the epidemic continues to grow exponentially throughout the country and is confident that transmission is not slowing down.”

Sir Mark Walport, a member of Sage, told the BBC: “On March 19, just before the first set of generalized restrictions, hospital admissions were 586 in England and on October 6 they were 524.

“So we are very close to the situation in early March.”

Hospital admissions are about a fifth of peak level in spring, but are currently doubling every fortnight.

Sir Jeremy Farrar, another Sage member and director of the Wellcome Trust, says: “We return to the options we faced in early March … the longer decisions are delayed, the more difficult and draconian the interventions needed to change the trajectory of [the] epidemic.”

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