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There is speculation that North Korea will unveil its latest weaponry in a grand parade this weekend to mark the 75th anniversary of the ruling Workers’ Party.
The event, which will be watched closely for signs of improvements in the regime’s nuclear and missile capabilities, is expected to be the largest of its kind in the country’s history.
According to 38 North, a website that monitors North Korea, recent satellite images suggest the parade will feature thousands of goose-stomping troops, watched by its leader, Kim Jong-un.
They will be followed by tanks and armored vehicles, but interest will focus on the climax of the show, when Kim could send a strong message to Washington by revealing new long-range missiles capable of striking the American continent.
But North Korean watchers say Kim will have to draw a fine line between reminding the United States that it has overseen improvements in the regime’s missile capabilities, despite international sanctions, and leaving the door open for resumption. of the denuclearization talks.
Harry Kazianis, a Korea expert at the Center of National Interest, said Saturday’s parade would be Kim’s opportunity to display “some of the world’s most powerful weapons that were once reserved for superpowers, even under massive international sanctions.”
He added: “While such a show of power is undoubtedly concerning, it will not provoke a strong reaction from Washington, if any. The Trump administration has made clear what the red lines are with North Korea: ICBM [ICBM] and nuclear tests, not public displays. “
Nuclear talks between Kim and Donald Trump have stalled since their 2019 Hanoi summit ended without a deal. It seems unlikely that it will resume until the two sides find common ground on Pyongyang’s demand for sanctions relief and Washington’s calls to advance denuclearization.
In his New Year’s speech, Kim said he would unveil a “new strategic weapon,” and analysts believe the parade could include a new solid-fuel ICBM, a multi-warhead missile, an improved submarine-launched ballistic missile. or a sophisticated missile launcher.
Some experts say that any indication that the regime has perfected solid-fuel missile technology would cause concern in Washington, as they do not require refueling and are therefore much more difficult to detect and destroy.
But North Korea is unlikely to mark the anniversary of the party with a missile launch, a move that risks sinking any hope of resurrecting a dialogue between Kim and Trump, or Joe Biden.
“Demonstration [a missile] in the parade instead of trying it on, it would be a non-provocative way to show it off, ”said Jenny Town, a member of the Stimson Center.
The anniversary comes at a time of uncertainty for North Korea and its leader.
Kim, whose health was the subject of much speculation earlier this year, has had to deal with the coronavirus pandemic, although North Korea continues to claim that it has not recorded a single case, natural disasters and an economy hit by sanctions and a strong drop. in trade with China.
“Kim’s people are considerably tired and their economy is in trouble … so I would like to mobilize their people and emphasize a policy of self-reliance to quell their grievances and attract their loyalty,” said Nam Sung-wook, professor of Korea University in South Korea. “To do that, he would need new weapons, powerful weapons that would send a message to the entire world.”
The agencies contributed to this report.
