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The number of coronavirus patients in intensive care in the north of England will exceed the April peak if infections continue to rise at the current rate, MPs warned at a briefing chaired by Chris Whitty and a minister.
According to the leaked slides, MPs were also shown preliminary research from Public Health England showing that 41% of those under 30 with Covid had contracted it in a pub, bar, restaurant or coffee shop. A quarter of infections across all ages originated in those settings, MPs were told.
With new restrictions expected to be announced next week for millions of people, and they are likely to reach hospitality venues, MPs were told there would be 304 people in intensive care units in the north of England in 22 days in the current trajectory. This is two more than at the peak of the first April wave in the region.
The briefing was chaired by Health Minister Ed Argar y Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, and MPs felt that it laid the groundwork for stricter restrictions in much of northern England and Nottinghamshire.
However, several MPs expressed frustration that they were not given clarity on what measures might be imposed in their areas, or when, following reports that the closure of pubs, bars and restaurants was expected to be announced Monday in some areas.
On the slides marked “official – sensitive,” seen by The Guardian, a senior government official cited a study by the US Centers for Disease Control that found that, compared to people without covid, the people with coronavirus were twice as likely to report having dinner. in a restaurant in the 14 days before becoming infected.
As of October 1, there were 37,616 pubs in England, according to research consultancy Altus Group. He calculated that if pubs were forced to close in northern areas where local restrictions already existed, it would mean that around a fifth of all English pubs would be affected.
Whitty and his colleagues laid out the medical justification for new restrictions in the regions, according to a lawmaker who was present, adding that he was surprised by the stark warnings about hospitalizations.
“The really scary thing for the Northwest and Northeast is that the projection is that there will be more people in intensive care in three weeks (22 days actually) than in the first wave,” he said.
“Even though the numbers are being driven by those under 30, Whitty and company are clearly very concerned.”
In the Northeast and Yorkshire, the average weekly hospital admissions fell to a low of seven on Aug. 16, but had risen to 107 on Oct. 2, according to slides shown to MPs. Average weekly admissions increased 51% in the last week, from September 25 to October 2. Patients needing a bed with a ventilator increased from five on August 13 to 79 on October 4.
In the Northwest, the average weekly hospital admissions fell to a low of eight on August 15 and increased to 130 on October 2, up 59% in the most recent week. Covid patients requiring ventilator beds increased from 12 on August 28 to 99 on October 4.
In Greater Manchester, 40 Covid patients were in the ICU on October 6, up from 14 on August 18, according to the Greater Manchester Combined Authority. There were 323 people with Covid in beds outside the ICU on October 6, more than six times the number on August 18.
Several MPs said they expected more details on the measures to be announced next week. “These are parliamentarians, but not parliamentarians. It’s no way to make a democracy work, ”said one.
