SAGE experts say a tighter lockdown is “ inevitable ” and that the rate could be as bad as in March

SAGE experts have warned that stricter national lockdown rules are “unavoidable,” as the coronavirus could reach the same rate as in March later this month.

Government advisers raised the alarm after the UK’s infection rate nearly doubled in a week.

There are now 125.7 cases per 100,000 people across the UK. And yesterday 14,542 positive results were confirmed, more than 2,000 the day before.

Boris Johnson is believed to be urgently considering new local, regional or national lockdown measures after a briefing with scientific advisers yesterday.

Whitehall had been concentrating on plans for a new “three-tiered” system of local closures, to introduce stricter restrictions at a stroke in northern England.

But the prime minister also faces pleas to do more, as irate critics complain that the curfew in national bars at 10 p.m. and the confusing hodgepodge of local rules, including local bans on seeing people. from other homes, they have not worked.

While the government has not yet decided how to act, scientists pressured the prime minister to act now with “strict” national rules.

Two SAGE experts said options should include a “circuit breaker” lockdown, a short period of very strict restrictions to reduce the rate of new infections in the UK.

SAGE member Professor John Edmunds harshly criticized existing “light touch” measures, telling BBC Newsnight: “That is really only delaying the inevitable.

“At some point we will implement very strict measures because we will have to do it when the hospitals start to really fill up.

“We will have to implement those measures. So, frankly, the best strategy is to implement them now.”

Professor Edmunds said a “complete package” of measures “across the country” is now needed.

He added: “If we did it tomorrow, if we locked ourselves in and reversed the epidemic, hospitalizations would keep increasing … in the next week or two.

“We are starting to get to a point where we will really have to take really critical action, otherwise we will risk turning the NHS back into a national Covid service.

“And that’s what leads to all these excessive deaths, because you can’t treat other patients properly because hospitals are full of Covid patients.”

Professor Callum Semple, a member of SAGE, also said it should be considered a national “circuit breaker.”

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today show that “maybe a circuit breaker a couple of weeks ago would have really been a good idea.”

He added: “It is always easier to reduce an outbreak at an earlier stage than to let it go and then try to reduce it at a later stage.

“So yeah, circuit breakers are certainly something we should think about nationally.”

Despite this, Professor Semple suggested that schools could remain open, saying there is “growing evidence that elementary school children are not amplifying this disease.”

He added: “In high school kids, it’s again lower than in adults, but it’s such a gradient of effects that sixth graders probably have the same risk as adults, but that data is a little less stable.”

A third expert, Professor Stephen Reicher, warned that the virus could reach the same levels in March later this month if it continues to double at the current rate.

Professor Reicher, who is part of SAGE’s behavioral sciences subgroup, told the BBC: “If you look at the numbers right now, the level of infections is about 10% of what it was at the peak in March.

“But at the doubling rate, it would probably be at the same level as the March peak at the end of October.

“So the good news is that we have a window of opportunity to do something.

“If we miss that window of opportunity then we are really in trouble, then we would really be talking about going back to March in terms of total lockdown measures.

“But we are not talking about that now, we have time.”

The prediction echoes a graph presented by Chief Scientific Advisor Patrick Vallance, who modeled how the UK could reach 50,000 cases a day by the end of October.

Skeptics of the lockdown seized on seemingly low case data last week to suggest that Sir Patrick’s chart was too bleak.

But since then those case numbers have been revised upward after more than 15,000 ‘missing’ positives were entered into the system, and the difference between Sir Patrick’s chart and the actual data is now still there, but less dramatic. .

Unlike the other two SAGE experts, Professor Reicher said a circuit breaker “doesn’t make sense” if the picture is not different at the end.

He called for more testing, more regulation to ensure people obey the rules in places like pubs, and more support.

But he also warned that some of those measures could only happen in the long term, and the government should focus on “what can be done quickly.”

He added: “We don’t have time, we have to do it now.”

Cabinet Minister Liz Truss said today that the government did not want a complete national lockdown, but did not rule out that or a “switch” to control the virus.

“We are not going to comment on future plans,” he told Times Radio.

“The point is that we keep this under review and make sure we respond to what is happening on the ground.”

Northern city leaders warned today that local lockdown restrictions “don’t work,” are confusing and even “counterproductive.”

Leeds, Manchester and Newcastle city council leaders – Judith Blake, Sir Richard Leese and Nick Forbes – joined Liverpool Mayor Joe Anderson in writing to the Health Secretary saying they are “extremely concerned” about the increase in cases.

People in the four cities and more are prohibited from meeting people they do not live with indoors and in private gardens.

“The existing restrictions do not work, they confuse the public and some, like the 10 pm rule, are counterproductive,” Labor politicians wrote.

They called for additional powers to punish rule breakers, for police, council and public health experts to develop new restrictions and a locally controlled test and trace system.

But the leaders added: “However, we want to make it clear that we do not support further economic blockades.”