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Sir Keir Starmer has surpassed Boris Johnson as the man voters believe would make the best prime minister, according to a new exclusive investigation seen by The Mail on Sunday.
The analysis, conducted by former Conservative Vice President Lord Ashcroft, will cause alarm in Downing Street as Johnson grapples with rising Covid-19 infections, economic damage caused by lockdown measures and rebellious Tory backbenchers angered by restrictions imposed. by No 10.
Thirty-seven percent of voters think Sir Keir would be the best prime minister, ahead of Johnson by 30 percent.
And when asked to choose between parties under their current leaders, 53 percent choose Labor and 47 percent choose Conservatives.
A poll by Lord Ashcroft asked voters to choose between Tories and Labor under their current leaders: 53% chose Labor and 47% chose Tories.
A total of 37 percent of voters think Sir Keir would be the best prime minister, beating Johnson in the poll with 30 percent.
The research also suggests that support for the Conservatives in the ‘Red Wall’ seats where Labor voters traded the Conservatives by the thousands to hand an 80-seat majority to Johnson last year is also reasonably soft, at 31 percent. saying they would switch back to Labor, while 69 percent would stay with the Conservatives.
Number 10 will not be affected by Lord Ashcroft’s finding that only 27 percent believe Johnson is doing a good job, while 21 percent think he would make a good prime minister ‘under different circumstances’ and 39 percent think he would not be a good Premier whatever the situation.
Voters are split evenly between those who think their government is doing a “reasonable job” and those who think it has “mishandled things,” which rank at 45 percent.
But 34 percent think a Labor government would have handled the crisis better, and 22 percent said it was worse.
These findings are reflected in the personal ratings of top politicians, with Chancellor Rishi Sunak only among London politicians to post a positive figure, plus 2. Sir Keir is at zero and the Prime Minister at minus 11.
Lord Ashcroft’s focus groups were glowing about Mr. Sunak, with one participant saying: ‘Rishi has stood out for me. The way he addressed the audience was quite comforting. He is the most confident and competent of them all. ‘
Lord Ashcroft’s analysis found that only 27 percent believe Johnson is doing a good job, while 21 percent believe he would be a good prime minister ‘in different circumstances’
Another said: ‘I felt like they were taking care of me. I think it’s a star. ‘
Opinion on Johnson was divided, with some using terms such as “undecided,” “overwhelmed,” and “indolent.” Others said he was’ doing the best job possible right now ‘and’ he’s in a difficult position challenge, so we should give him some slack.
Lord Ashcroft also detected growing irritation with the 10pm curfew in pubs and restaurants and other measures.
One respondent called it ridiculous, while another said: ‘He’s getting dumb now. It begins to look like a dictatorship. Stop letting people see their families, shut down the economy, it’s getting out of hand. Not even one percent of the population has contracted it and most have recovered. It is disproportionate.
8,051 adults were interviewed online from September 17-20. Data weighted to be representative of all UK adults.
The divisions of the past have not disappeared, says LORD ASHCROFT, who believes there is still hope for conservatives even though the poll shows voters are turning against ‘incompetent’ Boris Johnson.
By Lord Ashcroft for the Mail On Sunday
It seems hardly credible that just a little over nine months ago, a triumphant Boris Johnson returned to Downing Street with an 80-seat majority that transformed the political map of Britain.
Not only has the Covid crisis derailed the ‘leveling off’ agenda and overshadowed the sunny optimism that was Johnson’s hallmark until the pandemic struck: in political terms, it has given conservatives a premature case of medium-term depression.
Many voters on all sides have a much more lenient view of the government’s handling of the crisis than media coverage might suggest.
As I discovered in my latest research, people spontaneously praise the licensing plans and rapid creation of Nightingale hospitals.
Even critics admit that ministers are doing their unprecedented best to help guide their decisions.
In my survey, the proportion who said the government had done a reasonable job in difficult circumstances matched those who thought its handling had made things worse.
Boris himself has won some unlikely hearts: “ He’s holding on to the British people and he’s done everything he can to help, ” said a 2019 Labor voter, explaining his change of mind towards the prime minister.
But the criticism is many: why don’t we act earlier, people ask, at least restricting flights from Covid-affected countries like China?
How could they expect us to take the rules seriously when Dominic Cummings is allowed to drive across the country without even a reprimand? And why are the guidelines so confusing and contradictory?
While many blame the recent spike in cases on people breaking the rules, they think they know why it happens: ‘One minute it’s’ back to work,’ then it’s’ working from home, ‘said a conservative voter in the PM itself . constituency. It’s frustrating, so I think people will just do what they want to do. ‘
The crisis has also exposed Johnson’s apparent weaknesses, with some saying he seemed overwhelmed by a crisis that required control and attention to detail.
While 27 percent in my survey said he was doing a good job, one in five said he could be a good prime minister in different circumstances, but he wasn’t the kind of leader we need right now.
Some wonder if he has really recovered from his own encounter with Covid. In my survey, the most frequently chosen words to describe him were “out of reach” and “incompetent.”
This scrutiny is underscored by the arrival of Sir Keir Starmer, who has made a good first impression as a professional and capable leader, more capable than his predecessor of holding the Prime Minister to account.
So much so, in fact, that in my poll he led Johnson between 37 and 30 percent on the question of who would be the best prime minister.
When we asked people how likely they thought they were to support each party in the next election, Labor and Tories were tied, and those who had switched to elect Johnson in 2019 were less confident than most Tories. that they would stay with their new party. .
I found that the Tories had lost their edge over Labor by being seen as competent, having the right priorities, being clear about what they stand for and being likely to do what they say – crucial attributes in which they comfortably led during last December’s election.
Conservatives don’t have to despair just yet. For one thing, Starmer (pictured from Commons this week on PMQ) still has a lot to convince
This kind of thing makes many conservatives nervous. Despite their gruesome scare in the 2017 election, the Conservatives are no longer used to being seriously challenged by a Labor Party that seemed to have lost its political orientation.
But you don’t have to despair just yet. For one thing, Starmer still has a lot of convincing to do.
Although he is clearly very different from Jeremy Corbyn, voters are much less sure that the Labor Party has really changed; in fact, some even question how distinct the two really are, given Starmer’s prominent position in Corbyn’s shadow cabinet.
The sight of him “kneeling” also has some former Labor voters in former “Red Wall” seats wondering if he is prone to the kinds of political gestures that signal virtues that turn them off.
This illustrates the great electoral challenge for Starmer: uniting the new Labor Party metropolitan base with the permanent vote with the very different and culturally more conservative voters who backed Brexit and separated in large numbers during the last two elections, feeling that the The party despised them and ignored their views and took their votes for granted.
But conservatives have a similar conundrum, beyond just trying their best to deal with the pandemic.
This will focus on the economy – how much the government can or should continue to support businesses and revenues once the current schemes expire, and especially how the generous but necessary government spending over the last six months will be paid for.
Last year, Johnson won the victory by attracting both Brexit-supporting voters in former Labor territories and culturally different voters, including many Remainers, who were not only horrified by Prime Minister Corbyn’s idea, but also concerned that Labor ruin the country.
With Brexit almost over, Corbyn relegated to history, and austerity almost repudiated by the conservatives themselves, that will be a much harder trick to pull off next time.
Although the pandemic continues to dominate the news and seemingly all aspects of life, it may seem that the divisions that have shaped British politics for the past four years have not disappeared. In fact, they haven’t even been suspended.
The Covid crisis hasn’t transformed the political landscape, but it has added some new contours for the parties to navigate.
Lord Ashcroft KCMG, PC is an international entrepreneur, philanthropist, author, and pollster.
Full details of his investigation can be found at lordashcroftpolls.com. For information on her general work, visit lordashcroft.com.
Follow him on Twitter and Facebook: @LordAshcroft.
