Why Saturday’s high-level Brexit video call matters

It is significant.

The news that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will speak to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Saturday cannot be dismissed as blah blah in the Brexit process.

“Wake me up when I’m done: trade deal or no trade deal,” I often hear from people who complain that the problem has “gone on too long.”

The thing is, it really matters. In the UK and the EU, lives and livelihoods will be affected by the outcome of these talks.

The Brexit divorce deal last year gave some important, if not complete, peace of mind to the several million EU citizens and their families living in the UK, and to the UK citizens and their families living in the UK. EU after Brexit.

It gave Northern Ireland a sense of security, though not as much as expected, as recent events have shown, between the post-Brexit UK and the EU single market member Ireland, and home to a process. still fragile peace.

The trade and security deal, which has been negotiated for months, is also something both sides say they want.

Not at any price, they insist. But governments on both sides of the English Channel see a trade agreement without tariffs or quotas plus police, judicial and other cooperation between neighbors as something to aspire to.

Of course, speculation abounds as to why Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen have suddenly scheduled their digital tête-à-tête.

In general, it is interpreted as a positive sign.

On Friday, the president of the European Commission said that she and the prime minister would be “taking stock” of the negotiations, and that time is running out to reach an agreement. She called for the negotiations to be intensified.

He said the most difficult topics were still “wide open.” And he mentioned state aid and level playing field in particular, about which the EU is asking the UK to adhere to competition regulations to have access to the single market without tariffs or quotas.

It is not surprising. And this helps explain the leaders’ video call tomorrow.

The accepted wisdom has always been that negotiating teams can only progress up to a point. And that the final push – the politically difficult decisions about how much to commit at friction endpoints – would have to come from above.

Also in terms of optics, perhaps Boris Johnson in particular, but also Ursula von der Leyen, they will want to be seen as center stage in terms of decision-making and ultimately declare a deal or no-deal outcome.

There has been positive noises coming from the UK for a week or so, suggesting that the solutions were approaching key issues like state aid – the extent to which governments prop up companies or promote certain industries in the country.

That has yet to be confirmed by the EU.

The prime minister and Ms Von der Leyen may be speaking on Saturday to explore who is really willing to make what commitments on the latest outstanding issues.

Does the UK really want a deal knowing key concessions must be made ?, EU diplomats still wonder aloud.

Will the EU (finally) accept that the UK is now an independent country and cannot and will not adhere to follow the EU rules after Brexit, for example on fishing and competition regulations, ask the government and members of the Conservative Party?

If the answer to both questions is broadly yes, then it is speculated that we could get an announcement that negotiators will now enter a media blocking “tunnel”, known in EU circles as the “submarine”. That would allow negotiators to focus, uninterrupted or influenced by media criticism or political commentary.

The president of the European Commission rejected the word “tunnel” when asked about it on Friday. The word, but not the concept.

But the EU has long insisted that there will be no tunnel by that or any other name unless a “landing zone”, that is, compromise positions, is visible from the start.

Clearly, we haven’t gotten to the more difficult topics yet.

Compromises aren’t just politically complicated for Boris Johnson.

He is vulnerable to being accused in the media and by some members of his own party of “betraying Brexit” if concessions are made. But fishing rights and competition rules are also sensitive political issues for many EU members.

On competition, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is a fan of the “integrity of the single market”. She has made it clear that she wants the EU to protect her interests and to make that, and not a trade deal with the UK, the number one priority.

It is worth noting that the EU’s top negotiator is reportedly planning to fly to Berlin on Monday to see Ms Merkel.

If the EU accepts (as it arguably will have to, if a deal is to be reached) that the UK will not adhere to the bloc’s labor, environmental and state aid rules, the so-called level playing field provisions, then European Union diplomats say they will instead seek to get the UK to accept “guiding principles” on these issues.

In addition to a robust mechanism to handle disputes quickly and effectively if they arise between the two parties.

On fishing, French President Emmanuel Macron is under pressure to abandon his maximalist approach. Does not want.

Fishing is by no means a huge contributor to GDP in France, but, like the UK, it is a totemic issue.

Macron is aware of the upcoming presidential elections in France. It makes him wary of giving ammunition to political opponents to say he abandoned French interests.

And then there’s the explosive issue of the UK government’s Internal Market Act, part of which nullifies last year’s EU-UK deal on Northern Ireland.

The EU has started legal proceedings against the UK for this reason.

And the European Parliament says that even if a trade deal is reached soon, it will not ratify it unless the government rewrites the bill.

But the government insists it will not change the text. It says the bill provides a safety net to ensure the integrity of the UK single market.

Brussels hopes that agreeing to a trade deal without tariffs and zero quotas, which will alleviate (though not free from friction!) The post-Brexit trade flow between the UK and the EU, will allay government fears about Northern Ireland.

The EU’s fingers are crossed to render the contentious parts of the internal market bill obsolete, thus resolving the dispute.

But again, we are not there yet.

For now, the whys and whys of Saturday’s talks are pure speculation.

The only thing we know for sure: the UK and the EU say they want a deal, though not at any price.

However, if an agreement does eventually emerge, both parties will have had to make concessions.

Although, of course, they will try to sell the deal to their local audiences as a win.

Or, at least, as the best possible outcome considering all the circumstances, be it the red lines on either side, the impact of Covid-19, and almost inevitably, considering how publicly moody these negotiations have been, a dose of finger crossed. -Pointing, I try or I don’t try.