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Coronavirus cases have doubled in most English cities and towns that are subject to long-term local lockdowns, according to the Guardian analysis, amid growing concern that restrictions are confusing and made “low. price”.
In 11 of the 16 English cities and towns where restrictions were imposed nine weeks ago, the infection rate at least doubled, with cases in five areas of Greater Manchester increasing faster than the average for England at that time.
In Wigan, cases have risen from seven per 100,000 residents to 102 in that period. Leicester is the only one of the 16 areas that has fewer cases than when the measures were implemented.
The findings will raise concern after Professor Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, said the government’s strategy was to limit the virus to regional hotspots. “If everyone follows the guide, then we could contain it within the areas [now] in the way that happened to some extent in Italy and Spain, “he said at a press conference on Wednesday.
On Thursday, more than 2 million people in Merseyside, Warrington and Teesside were told the law would prohibit them from mixing with other homes inside. However, Middlesbrough Mayor Andy Preston said he would not accept the measures because they were based on “factual inaccuracies and a monstrous and terrifying lack of communication and ignorance.” He added: “As things stand, we challenge the government and do not accept these measures.”
Scientists, parliamentarians and local leaders said the growing patchwork of local measures, now covering some 20 million people, nearly a third of the UK population, had failed to reduce coronavirus rates, partly because the rules failed. they were clear.
There is concern that much of the country could be left with tighter restrictions for months after George Eustice, the environment secretary, said the measures would only be lifted when local infection rates were “more in line with trend. national”.
The analysis shows that 28 areas of England, comprising almost 9 million people, have twice the country’s average infection rate of 55 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, including Leeds, Manchester, Bradford and Liverpool.
Sir Chris Ham, former executive director of the think tank King’s Fund, said the figures show that the government must “redouble its efforts to generate public support for the restrictions and use a wide range of community leaders to do so.”
He said the number of cases was not decreasing because the blocking rules were too “complex and confusing”, there was a lack of support for self-isolating people and the test and trace system “still did not work well enough.”
Using data from Public Health England, the analysis measured the increase in case rates from when restrictions were introduced in each area through the week ending September 20. It excluded lower-level local authorities and areas where blockades had been introduced in the previous two weeks.
Cases in Wigan, Bolton and Bury had roughly quadrupled since the restrictions were imposed on July 31, a significantly faster increase than in the rest of England.
The increase in cases is now affecting hospital wards. The number of Covid admissions has nearly doubled in Greater Manchester since the measures were introduced, from 25 a day in the first week of August to 49 earlier this week. The number of Covid patients in intensive care in the area has risen from 12 to 41.
While it is not possible to know how much the number of cases would have increased if no action had been taken, the scientists said that if the goal was to reduce infection rates, local closures had failed.
Boris Johnson cited Luton on Wednesday as an example of how local closures work. Although his cases decreased when restrictions were imposed, allowing him to be released from the measures in a few days, they have since started to rise and are now above their original level.
Dr David Strain, a senior clinical professor at the University of Exeter and an honorary consultant to the NHS, said he believed that another national lockdown was a “very realistic possibility” because the disease could not be eradicated before the fall. “The lack of clarity about what the rules are is a big part of the problem. We need very good, clear and consistent messages across the board that we must minimize the spread by creating unique social bubbles. “
Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, said ministers had tried to contain the virus “cheaply” by introducing local restrictions without a significant package of financial support for businesses, residents and local authorities.
He said he would not like the rules in Greater Manchester to be tougher; rather, they should be “more consistent.” “There is still a feeling that local restrictions only accomplish so much and it’s really just going to be anything. [imposed] at the national level that bring cases back down, “he said.
Matt Hancock, the health secretary, announced on Thursday a £ 7 million payment to city councils in affected areas, while some local authorities, such as Bolton, were allowed to hand over up to £ 1,500 per business every three weeks. But local leaders described this as a “drop in the bucket”, calling instead for an extension of the licensing scheme for businesses in lockdown areas.
